Israel As Warning...

 

    In the tragedy that is Israel and Gaza are implications the US should be chilled by.

    Israel's intelligence and security failures are rooted in the Netanyahu right wing coalition. His own worst intentions are abetted by extremists in his government. It's a bad mix and they've been on an authoritarian track, trying to weaken the Supreme Court, with too much fixation on West Bank settlers and those issues, as well as staving off what has been a national uprising. Serious distractions and they now recoil from slaughter. They must square it with their personal and national soul that they too are responsible for the brutality and blood bath. They lost focus.

    American Intelligence executives tried to send warnings about activity in Gaza. The Netanyahu coalition's most deadly sin is being so out of alignment with the will of the Israeli majority, caused by the unholy coalition's goal of holding onto power just to have power. Sound familiar?

    Netanyahu's corruption charges were trouble enough, but the extremists he has bedded stained and poisoned a government that more than any has fought to maintain it's existence, legitimacy and it's own worst demons. They were weakened by their own hand and failed at being resolute and alert.

    That almost sounds like a US story.

    A twice impeached, 4 time indicted insurrectionist sociopath liar, who threatens to be a "president of revenge" who will change how America government works could be in a position to be elected. That frightening possibility speaks to the inherent danger in our own nation including the crippled intellect of US citizens with the right to vote and who could find a way to work the electoral college to put a deranged and dangerous man back in office. 

    The MAGA party has poisoned the republican party and has made the US House of Representatives inoperative at a time when our own financial existence and   security demand action. They are breaking the government, with intention. They are weakening us.

     Our national security leaders talk about the instability and ignorance of Trump when he was commander in chief. 

    Scalise and Jordan are men with such repugnant personal flaws that their authoritarian and anti democracy politics have to take second place in why they are too whakadoodle to be House speaker.

    The same anti American forces are trying to undercut aid to Ukraine. I have written previously of an intelligence brief in which I participated shortly after Russia invaded. Intelligence officers from the US, UK, Canada and France said Putin's strategy would be to outlast US and western resolve. He counts on on the US giving up. His agents in the republican party, the insurrectionists and anti democracy caucus are working to stop our assistance of Ukraine. That could be deadly.

    History teaches what happens when an invading force like Russia, or a Hamas, or a Hitler led Germany are not stopped. Posts here 5 and 6 years ago, drawing parallels of the rise of German and Italian fascism to the take over of the Republican party and the rise of the MAGA cult drew criticism from some. I think more people have come around to understanding the warning.

    When we look at Israel, now at war, and at war with itself too, we should see other warning signs. 

    See you down the trail.

WAR-The Mindset-The Risks

 

Nine Minutes Past Mid Night

brutality rising

    Human kind may be passing into a savage age. Markers are apparent; life upended by a virus, patterns of vicious and freak weather, social disorder, decline of civility, political degradation and now Russia's mad war of aggression in Europe. Any one is threatening, all of them could drag us out of the peaceful world our generations have enjoyed since the end of the second World War.

        We have lived in a rare interval of peace and well being in the span of a human history full of misery, suffering, darkness and brutality. 

        Within hours of Russia's invasion of Ukraine I sat in a briefing with six of the world's preeminent intelligence and security officers for a hard nosed assessment of where the new war finds us and what risks are ahead.

        The recent historic antecedent is Sudetenland in the late 30's. This is not about Ukraine and NATO, it is a manifestation of the Putin doctrine. It is an historic breaking of international law and rules, driven by man with a messianic complex who strives to change history to his shaping, remaking the map of Russia.

        The analysis from men who led Britain's MI 6, CIA, Canada's Security Intelligence Service, the British Foreign Office, and Homeland Security says Western response has been strong and united, but it will be tested by challenges, primarily economic costs. Western leadership is compromised by internal political division in the US, new leadership in Germany, Johnson's weak credibility in Britain, impatient domestic response and certitude. Taiwan looms over how this is resolved and they say it is likely to be a long process. 

        The invasion is a game changer, a disregard for law and is a piece of the rising authoritarian mindset that tramples, and seeks to destroy democratic structures and the rule of law and civil order. 

        There is a sense Putin is in an isolated state of mind as he demonstrates a messiah complex. He is in a dangerous state. He reads the West as being in a state of decay. The security veterans agree Putin must pay a heavy cost.

        The former senior CIA officer said we need to buckle up for a long ride, saying Putin's goals are beyond Ukraine, wanting to build the "Great Russia." Putin thinks "he can out suffer us, out last us and divide us."

        One of the men said we need to learn to deal with assertive and regressive leaders, that Putin is not alone. 

        They say this is an historic fight that can shape how succeeding generations will live, the degree to which law has value and meaning. Citizens should be informed of what is at risk and the cost. The costs will not be equally distributed. Gas and food costs will feed inflation in the US and elsewhere. 

        They warn of a possible spill over affect, perhaps by something as simple as a mistake. If any NATO nation is violated by cyber or military action, they say NATO must hit back with severity. 

fog in the valley, stars and moon 

        Repeatedly China was discussed. China will measure how resolved and lasting is the western response. Xi Jinping too thinks the West, especially the US is in decline and decay. He will calculate how we might respond to moves on Taiwan.

      They were quick to note the Russia-China alliance is not like the old Axis alliance of WWII. They say while China watches closely and shares a brutal resolve with Russia, it doesn't know how to be an ally. They will not make sacrifices for Russia. China will respect Putin as long as he does not get in the way or affect their agendas. 

        The China Belts and Roads initiative runs through the area of the conflict and neighboring nations. 

    

        Moments like this remind us of the interconnectedness of human endeavor and thought. In these closing paragraphs I seek to interpret the stark and hard-nosed assessment of men with years of real world knowledge, unknown to the majorities of the world.

        America has lost its way and is no longer the power that emerged from the end of WWII.

        How might this moment exist if Trump had not been subservient and a sycophant to Putin, taking Putin's word over the wisdom of his own national security apparatus?

        How might this moment look if Republicans had spotted in Trump the same authoritarian and reckless disregard for law and protocol as we see in Putin?

        How might this moment look if the Republican party stood up against the January 6th insurrection and all of the Trump effort to undermine an election and then attempt to overthrow the results? That was an invasion of our own sovereignty and dignity. And it followed the invasion of Putin's doctrine in our culture and politics.

        It is no wonder Putin and Xi look at us as in decay, and weak.

        The behavior of some elected office holders has been in my thinking traitorous. If I had my way they would be tried and if convicted they should be shot.

        I put in that number Trump, Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Lauren Boebert, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, John Kennedy.  I will not dignify what they have said but they have worked to undermine the US and the Western response to Putin's violation of international law. They are a pack of jackals in alliance with a Pariah.

       One of the British intelligence officers and a former Senior CIA officer said emphatically the Russian people must be made to pay, despite the pleas not to hurt the people because of Putin. The veteran's logic is, as long as their leader behaves as an international outlaw and Pariah, they too are culpable. They suggested yanking all Russian tourism visas, expelling Russians from international associations and sporting competitions, hitting them financially until they as a nation depose Putin or prevail at insisting the nation stop its illegal aggression.

    Until the US destroys the Republican Fifth Column we will indeed be weakened and it will encourage tyrants and assertive leaders such as Putin. Fox News personalities are amongst the anti American lobby and they have poisoned the minds of millions.

    Sad to say it, but those millions who think Trump won an election, or who elect fools like those named above, are also traitors to this nation and have contributed to the emboldening of a dictator. 

    Most of us have not lived through an event that is so precipitous. The best way forward is to adhere to principles of Westphalian Sovereignty, to listen to wisdom and experience, to remain true to our constitutional principles, think of the well being of all, reject emotion, propaganda and lies

and to be resolute and willing to pay the costs. To turn Putin on his own words, we must "out suffer, out last" him and not allow him to divide us any further.  It may take us into a brutal world, but we cannot relinquish our humanity or intelligence nor our will to prevail. 

   Stay strong.

   See you down the trail. 

JOURNALISM AND THE STRANGE CASE OF JULIAN

    There's a rumble in the media.

     Journalists, diplomats, legal analysts, security and intelligence officials, jurists and prosecutors are having a go with the topic "Journalism and Wikileaks." 

   You've read the diverse and emphatic views of whether Julian Assange is a journalist or if Wikileaks is journalism. Good arguments abound.

    During a life in journalism I came to the view that most of government and the business done in the name and employ of the taxpayer, ought to be as transparent and fully disclosed as possible. The public has a right to know and it is an almost unlimited right, almost!

    Investigative reporters rely on sources, some of them confidential. In my experience there were a few times we reasoned a court order to disclose a source could be down the line. I was certain I would not divulge a source and therefore would have to pay the piper for contempt of a court order. I was spared that. 
    Some things need to be undisclosed if trust is to be kept and sources are to be protected. Journalists also look for cover.

    Our sources in the intelligence, security and law enforcement sector have their own sources of information and knowledge. Knowing something is both the commodity and the modus operandi.   

    I knew of investigations, operations, penetrations and understood that disclosure of information would likely cause harm. That is reality. 

   I sat in an intelligence oversight committee room in the Capitol dome as an admired and respected Congressman and committee chair told me "some things that need to be done to protect the US and to give the President and Congress options, do not look so good in the light of day."  That was the standard, and I understood it. But I worked to verify as much as I could. 

    I published and broadcast information and details from files, records, reports, and evaluations that someone did not want released. Often the motive was to protect, conceal or obfuscate something that was illegal, damaging, dangerous, deceitful, wasteful or questionable. In most cases the leaked information was a piece of confirmation, a detail of reality, a fact. 
     When I learned an agency had an asset inside a suspected terrorist cell, when I knew a raid was scheduled at kick off time on Super Bowl Sunday, or when the Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST) investigated a report of a planted nuclear device near a national sports event, I sat on the info. Though I am a devotee to full disclosure, open access, and transparency, I understand there are limits and for good cause.
      Before I add a voice to the fray, I thought it important to provide a context.

julian assange is not a journalist

      Assange is a hacker, a leaker and he answers to no standard other than his own. He is a self imposed arbiter of right and purpose. He alone divines, subject to himself, only. 

    Still, I think some Wikileaks disclosures are valuable to a public knowledge of policy, though some of the information carries a high price.

     Sensitive information was revealed. Most of the disclosed information had previously been supervised and/or given oversight by appropriate congressional or judicial sources. 

     Some of the information comprised sources and assets and revealed programs that then lost their advantage. State Department officials reasoned with Assange to moderate his leak. He refused.

     Assange is a rogue player operating by whim, zeal, and pride. He has no allegiance to principle but himself. 

     When journalists get information from an Assange, a Snowden or other sources they seek to filter information that might cause harm. They impose standards. 

     There is a history of news organizations negotiating with government agencies or the military about what can and can't be revealed.

     In a democratic republic the last action in the negotiating process is the journalistic decision to publish or not, knowing and weighing the consequence.

      This is a deliberate and intelligent process and while events like the Pentagon Papers, or Boston Globe Spotlight investigation of Catholic sexual abuse or our own revelation of an attempted KGB penetration prior to a summit may leave wakes of turbulence and debate, there are standards applied and levied by multiple voices in a process.  Not for Assange, he shows no such respect for deliberation or reason. 

     

   Wikileaks is not a journalistic organization. Like its master, it is a leaker of information and subjective about who, what, when, where, and why. 

    In a long view, what they do may be informative, helpful even, but there is no canon, no code, no rules of engagement. At the core there is just Assange and his petulant insistence that we should trust him to know what is best and what should be known.

    That too is not journalism. Our technologies may have eclipsed our sense of judgment. A sense of reason seems endangered in our cyber world.

                                    

spring blessings

   The lupine is an especially joyful messenger of our California spring.

    See you down the trail.

     

    

    

FIGHTING WINTER-PRIVACY AND FREEDOM-RAPE AND FOOTBALL

FOR THE WINTER WEARY

     This post offers a few scenes for those of you who are winter weary. We hope the color, green and sunny scenes bolster you through what remains of that cold gray or worse.

     Our morale booster follows below.

 PRIVACY IS A FREEDOM

      It is a hard call, privacy vs investigative reach, but Apple is correct is denying access or a back door into personal information on phones or other devices.

      Privacy is under attack just in the way we live with technology and marketing. The Snowden and Wiki leaks disclosures detail how government is and can snoop. People often forget how willingly they open their lives to surveillance and manipulation via social media, on-line commerce and other transactions.

      We appreciate how difficult is the task of those who work to provide security. Intelligence and law enforcement are challenged by increasingly sophisticated adversaries and the capacity of modern communications. Still we cannot concede an inch of our right to privacy even if it makes investigation, prosecution or intelligence gathering easier. 

      We discovered the excessive reach in the Patriot Act, an emotional response to 9/11. If we give up expectations of privacy and personal rights the bad guys begin to win. It is an objective of terrorists to force democratic governments to behave like fascists or repressive regimes. When that happens we loose.

       Despite the difficulty a democratic republic must value individual rights and liberties. There are many other reasons beyond the philosophical rightness, not the least of which is human incompetence which can and has infected government agencies. There is also the fact that even with good intentions, governments can be used and manipulated by administrations and regimes with less than honorable intentions. Two names to help make that case-Richard Nixon and Watergate cover up. There is also Dick Cheney and his corrupt manipulation in energy and war business. If other less than honorable or zealot driven governments had what the government is pushing Apple for, then what happens to the freedoms we say make us different than dictators, strongmen or others like Stalin, Hitler, Putin, Assad, Isis, and etc.?

       Freedom means just that. Nothing less. 

 NATURE SAYS CHEERS!

      Hang in there, spring is on the way.

 RAPE AND FOOTBALL

     It's unclear how the Tennessee matter will resolve in the courts but football thuggism and sexual assault continue to plague us. In this most recent case a Tennessee player came to the aid of a rape victim. She had been attacked by two of the man's team mates. Later the good Samaritan was attacked and injured by team mates and when he complained to his coach Butch Jones, Jones berated the man and said "he betrayed his team."

     There is ample documentation of how players are coddled, how aberrant behavior is overlooked, how educational standards are ignored so a football player can compete. It starts in public schools, continues in some colleges and we have all seen how many NFL players are involved in criminal activity, assaults and domestic battery.

     When coaches like Butch Jones are around it's no wonder.

THE COAST IS CLEAR

     Coming soon, up the coast.

     See you down the trail.

CONUNDRUMS:PROTECTING FREEDOM-QUAKES AND NUKE PLANTS-PELICAN BRIEFS-BRIDGES AND STREEP

A SCIENTIST'S WARNING

     The former senior resident inspector at the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant believes the plant should be shut down until it can prove that it can withstand an earthquake along the newly discovered Shoreline fault. The plant is  90 minutes down the coast from the scenes below.

     California Senator Barbara Boxer plans hearings to examine the earthquake risks at Diablo Canyon. The AP reports Boxer says the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is failing to do its job to protect public safety.  The San Luis Obispo Tribune reports the NRC says it "does not have a  timeline" for its response to the inspector's criticism.

SPIES HELP

    News organizations report intelligence officers are close to identifying the masked jihadist seen speaking in a video of the beheading of American Journalist James Foley.

     Sophisticated analytical technology has driven the search. In an irony of life the super sleuthing and spy systems, invasive as they are, are tools needed in a world of terror.

      Protecting freedoms and lives in the shadow world is tricky going. It takes a continuous attention to the thin and often permeable line of balance. What may be needed in espionage and intelligence may not look so good in the light of day. A sense of history, judgement and wise oversight is mandatory

      THE GIVER CODICIL

       In 1993 my daughter Katherine read The Giver, the newly published Lois Lowry book about a seeming utopia. The book gained attention then as the utopia of the overview was revealed to be a dystopian state where people were medicated daily to eliminate emotions and where others were killed though the euphemism was "released to "Elsewhere."

       Back then Jeff Bridges was so taken by the story he turned it into a home movie staring his father Lloyd. Now Bridges himself stars as the wizened Giver, the holder of wisdom and history, in the Philip Noyce directed film.  

       I watched the film with my daughter and we discussed how 21 years later the idea of finding a balance where negative emotions and behavior could be controlled for the greater good is still a vexing question. "Nanny state" laws and regulations, preemptive policing, an increasingly medicated populace, an almost ubiquitous surveillance, algorithmic data capture and analysis, political influence of financial interests and etc eerily echo the Lowry premise as well as Orwell's more profound 1984. 

      The Giver transfers beautifully to film, populated by good acting.  Meryl Streep is haunting as a ruling elder. Katie Holmes turns in a solid though limited role as a mother. Newcomers Brenton Thwaites, Odeya Rush and Cameron Monaghan are all excellent.  Monaghan has already earned acclaim as one of the sons in the dysfunctional family drama Shameless.

     Though published as a young adult novel, the 2014 spin of The Giver makes for an entertaining sci-fi posing challenging questions about balance and how much is too far? Not unlike how far do democracies go to protect liberty?  How invasive do we become before we violate what we set out to protect?

      CLARITY

      There is nothing good in the IS. Islamic State is a dangerous menace to a modern world. Disturbingly they are tenacious, manipulative, effective and should be broken and then destroyed. Eliminating an evil like IS will raise hard questions for the world's modern nations, especially democracies.

MORNING BREAK 

  And taking his or her place amongst the pelicans, cormorants and gulls is a heron.

FINDING COZY

   Our cats sleep around.  They'll find a spot, settle in and then in a couple of days, maybe a week,  they move on.  It never ceases to amaze us where they find a bed.  Joy rests here on a box of oil paints tucked at the back of a work desk in Lana's studio.

   See you down the trail.

THE WEEKENDER-Zero Dark Thirty & 180

SEEING

ZERO DARK THIRTY

     This is an important film to see, not only because it is superbly directed-(Kathryn Bigelow should have been nomimated for an Oscar) nor because Jessica Chastain turns in a stunning and riveting performance as the CIA tracker Maya, but also because it is important history.

     It provokes, in fact it confronts you, in your face, on a couple of aspects of real life that are too easy for too many  to put out of mind.

     The war against terror requires warriors. We ask countrymen and women to step into the breech and do the awful work to keep us safe and then hamstring them with policy, bureaucracy, politics and the intrusion of career minded weasels. This film tells that story. It also tells in vivid detail the horrible and dangerous work that we ask our public employees to do. And the toll it can extract. 

      It captures, for public history, the search for Osama Bin Laden and the resolution of that quest.

      Some have knocked the film, accusing Bigelow and writer Mark Boal of being apologists for torture.  That is simply not true.  This is a fictionalized account but it tells with, in my opinion, an honest appraisal of the human toll that is taken and the demands that are made on those in our employ. 

      I remember sitting in a secure room in the dome of the US Capitol as the ranking member of the House Intelligence Oversight Committee said that some of the things we must do to protect our liberties don't always look so good in the light of day, but they are necessary to give the President and our security apparatus, options.  

      Zero Dark Thirty is a film that provides an opportunity to remember a real search and to ponder that dilemma. I think it is important to see this masterful, though gritty and at times heartbreaking and painful work. It is also a tribute to those Americans who do the hard work of intelligence, counter terrorism and security.

MASTERFUL ADVENTURE 

OF ANOTHER SORT

       Some of you may feel a tinge of envy in viewing this 

trailer.  Talk about a great adventure.

A GREAT BLUE HERON GOES TO SCHOOL

Have a great weekend.  

See you down the trail.

FLASHES-BACK & FRICTION POINTS

A FLASH BACK

     It was on this day, July 9 in 1962 that some of Andy Warhol's 15 minutes of fame began.  The Ferus Gallery in Los Angeles opened an exhibition of the pop artist's iconic work pictured here.

      Hard to believe this "modern art" is 50 years along. And 

a half century seems a long 15 minutes doesn't it?

MODERN TRAVAILS

     Thanks to the NEW YORK TIMES we know our cellphone carriers responded to 1.3 Million "demands" from law enforcement agencies last year. 

      Text messages, caller locations and other information was sought for investigations.  Congress is conducting an investigation of its own on what the TIMES says is "an explosion of cellphone surveillance."

      I read the full 9/11 Commission Report and recommendations  and have followed changes in intelligence, security and law enforcement agencies since. So I wonder, despite the gathering of all of this data, are our security agencies sharp enough to do anything with it?  As a journalist I saw how vital information was mishandled, miscommunicated, not shared, was amassed without appropriate analysis and even misinterpreted by federal, state and local law enforcement, security and intelligence agencies.  I'm not convinced, nor are experts and those in the field, that things have improved much. That does not, however, negate the serious questions the data collection raises. 

      Just another entry in the age of Information Wars.   

DAY FILE

THE SHORE

See you down the trail.

WAR CLOUDS OVER IRAN & SPRING IS SPRUNG

THE MOVE IS IRAN'S

     The best analysis comes down to this-Iran will be hit by

an Israeli strike unless it shows the world a sign that it has or 

will shut down its nuclear weapons program.

     As a counter to the almost universal attitude of an inevitable Israeli strike is the threat by the supreme leader,

Ayatolla Khamenei that a strike on Iran would be more damaging to the United States.  
     Iran calls the US freezing of Iran's assets "psychological warfare" as they have begun a series of war games.
     Clearly the situation is a tinderbox. Israelis have stepped up security and Jewish organizations in the US and elsewhere have been told to do likewise.  US Military and Intelligence warn that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program would prompt an Iranian missile retaliation.
     The statement today by Khamenei is deemed a serious escalation.  Until now western sources have tried to portray the Iranian regime as being rogue and even without support of Iranians.  Now that the holy man has spoken, it will make it tougher on those elements in Iran who have been identified
as reasonable or pro western. The power remains someplace between the megalomania of Ahmadinejad and the zealotry of the Ayatolla. 
     Tricky and critical at this time.

DAY BOOK

NATURAL RHYTHM

     Coastal California is getting some needed rain today.

Amounts vary, but any precipitation is welcomed. It may be 

drier than it should be, but spring has arrived.  After 5 years

on the Central Coast, this former mid-westerner is still amazed to see blooms in early February.  We used to wait till

late March or April.  

 This is also the time of year when controlled burns are permitted.

      A personal note.  Congrats to Indianapolis for the superb job of hosting the Super Bowl.  Many friends and former colleagues were involved in a myriad of functions.

I have enjoyed hearing their reports and was proud

of how it all looked and came together.

     See you down the trail.