WAR-The Mindset-The Risks

 

Nine Minutes Past Mid Night

brutality rising

    Human kind may be passing into a savage age. Markers are apparent; life upended by a virus, patterns of vicious and freak weather, social disorder, decline of civility, political degradation and now Russia's mad war of aggression in Europe. Any one is threatening, all of them could drag us out of the peaceful world our generations have enjoyed since the end of the second World War.

        We have lived in a rare interval of peace and well being in the span of a human history full of misery, suffering, darkness and brutality. 

        Within hours of Russia's invasion of Ukraine I sat in a briefing with six of the world's preeminent intelligence and security officers for a hard nosed assessment of where the new war finds us and what risks are ahead.

        The recent historic antecedent is Sudetenland in the late 30's. This is not about Ukraine and NATO, it is a manifestation of the Putin doctrine. It is an historic breaking of international law and rules, driven by man with a messianic complex who strives to change history to his shaping, remaking the map of Russia.

        The analysis from men who led Britain's MI 6, CIA, Canada's Security Intelligence Service, the British Foreign Office, and Homeland Security says Western response has been strong and united, but it will be tested by challenges, primarily economic costs. Western leadership is compromised by internal political division in the US, new leadership in Germany, Johnson's weak credibility in Britain, impatient domestic response and certitude. Taiwan looms over how this is resolved and they say it is likely to be a long process. 

        The invasion is a game changer, a disregard for law and is a piece of the rising authoritarian mindset that tramples, and seeks to destroy democratic structures and the rule of law and civil order. 

        There is a sense Putin is in an isolated state of mind as he demonstrates a messiah complex. He is in a dangerous state. He reads the West as being in a state of decay. The security veterans agree Putin must pay a heavy cost.

        The former senior CIA officer said we need to buckle up for a long ride, saying Putin's goals are beyond Ukraine, wanting to build the "Great Russia." Putin thinks "he can out suffer us, out last us and divide us."

        One of the men said we need to learn to deal with assertive and regressive leaders, that Putin is not alone. 

        They say this is an historic fight that can shape how succeeding generations will live, the degree to which law has value and meaning. Citizens should be informed of what is at risk and the cost. The costs will not be equally distributed. Gas and food costs will feed inflation in the US and elsewhere. 

        They warn of a possible spill over affect, perhaps by something as simple as a mistake. If any NATO nation is violated by cyber or military action, they say NATO must hit back with severity. 

fog in the valley, stars and moon 

        Repeatedly China was discussed. China will measure how resolved and lasting is the western response. Xi Jinping too thinks the West, especially the US is in decline and decay. He will calculate how we might respond to moves on Taiwan.

      They were quick to note the Russia-China alliance is not like the old Axis alliance of WWII. They say while China watches closely and shares a brutal resolve with Russia, it doesn't know how to be an ally. They will not make sacrifices for Russia. China will respect Putin as long as he does not get in the way or affect their agendas. 

        The China Belts and Roads initiative runs through the area of the conflict and neighboring nations. 

    

        Moments like this remind us of the interconnectedness of human endeavor and thought. In these closing paragraphs I seek to interpret the stark and hard-nosed assessment of men with years of real world knowledge, unknown to the majorities of the world.

        America has lost its way and is no longer the power that emerged from the end of WWII.

        How might this moment exist if Trump had not been subservient and a sycophant to Putin, taking Putin's word over the wisdom of his own national security apparatus?

        How might this moment look if Republicans had spotted in Trump the same authoritarian and reckless disregard for law and protocol as we see in Putin?

        How might this moment look if the Republican party stood up against the January 6th insurrection and all of the Trump effort to undermine an election and then attempt to overthrow the results? That was an invasion of our own sovereignty and dignity. And it followed the invasion of Putin's doctrine in our culture and politics.

        It is no wonder Putin and Xi look at us as in decay, and weak.

        The behavior of some elected office holders has been in my thinking traitorous. If I had my way they would be tried and if convicted they should be shot.

        I put in that number Trump, Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Lauren Boebert, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, John Kennedy.  I will not dignify what they have said but they have worked to undermine the US and the Western response to Putin's violation of international law. They are a pack of jackals in alliance with a Pariah.

       One of the British intelligence officers and a former Senior CIA officer said emphatically the Russian people must be made to pay, despite the pleas not to hurt the people because of Putin. The veteran's logic is, as long as their leader behaves as an international outlaw and Pariah, they too are culpable. They suggested yanking all Russian tourism visas, expelling Russians from international associations and sporting competitions, hitting them financially until they as a nation depose Putin or prevail at insisting the nation stop its illegal aggression.

    Until the US destroys the Republican Fifth Column we will indeed be weakened and it will encourage tyrants and assertive leaders such as Putin. Fox News personalities are amongst the anti American lobby and they have poisoned the minds of millions.

    Sad to say it, but those millions who think Trump won an election, or who elect fools like those named above, are also traitors to this nation and have contributed to the emboldening of a dictator. 

    Most of us have not lived through an event that is so precipitous. The best way forward is to adhere to principles of Westphalian Sovereignty, to listen to wisdom and experience, to remain true to our constitutional principles, think of the well being of all, reject emotion, propaganda and lies

and to be resolute and willing to pay the costs. To turn Putin on his own words, we must "out suffer, out last" him and not allow him to divide us any further.  It may take us into a brutal world, but we cannot relinquish our humanity or intelligence nor our will to prevail. 

   Stay strong.

   See you down the trail.