The War Within

 

The Last assault-Fiscalini Ranch Preserve, Cambria

nature as metaphor

        We are at war with ourselves. Words are weapons, understanding is the target. It is a wasting disease. The very republic is at risk.

        There is much that most Americans do not know. Information-disinformation and intelligence follows below. 

nature as tonic

        Uplift first; a quick walk through spring on the Pacific bluffs of the Fiscalini Ranch. 

        Life blooms again.   

        Live and let live is in practice here. We could use a big dose of that.

        I listened to three women who have been paid to know more than most people. They worry about our future.

        Dr Stacey Dixon is the principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence. Teresa Smetzer was the CIA's Director of Digital Futures in the Directorate of Digital Innovation. She was a career CIA analyst. Ellen McCarthy was Assistant Secretary of State, bureau of Intelligence and Research.

        Social media is a perfect medium for disinformation. 

        -20 thousand web sites are published as disinformation agents. Think it's obvious what those sites are? Well, advertising companies spend $235 million, on those sites annually.

         -Pew Research reports 65% of adults get their news on social media. 

       - False tweets are 70% more likely to be retweeted Science magazine reports.

        The wise women know these stats. They sight evidence of this information warfare in the degradation of US public policy and debate. And in trust.

        A lack of public trust, a lack of information that is agreed upon is dangerous and can bring down government because it erodes the public's belief and trust. Governments exist only on public trust, or they are dictatorships and autocracies where trust does not matter.  

        Social media is bad enough for adults, who are expected to have some degree of critical thinking. It is poison, manipulative and  even more dangerous for children.  

        Jonathan Haidt, professor of Ethical Leadership at New York University Stern School of Business studies psychology of morality and emotions. Haidt writes we live in a polarized, factionalized and angry America that is like the "new Babel."

        In The Atlantic he writes "Social scientists have identified at least three major forces that collectively bind successful democracies; social capital (social networks with high levels of trust), strong institutions and shared stories. Social media has weakened all three."

        The late media analyst Eric Boehlert wrote "Why is the press rooting against Biden? He noted the "glaring disconnect between reality and how the press depicts White House accomplishments. The "press is determined to keep Biden pinned down."  

        By objective standards Biden's administration has been successful, but by the tone of reporting, the way questions are asked, and the incessant use of questionable opinion polls, America is being fed worst than "spin," rather it is outright manipulation.

        Partisans will tell you this is an affect of the Republican parties' culture war campaign. 

        Intelligence and security experts say it is more evidence of information warfare between democracy and authoritarianism, that is extraordinarily well funded and strategic.

        The media tone is also the blame of the gotcha game of snark and click bait that social media has forced on a once sober and more careful news media. Young reporters and producers who grew up with Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and very little history are forcing a more vacuous and controversy driven style of reporting. It is divisive, inept and dangerous. It is also mindless. 

        You may remember when "Fake News" became the mantra of a candidate and President we warned it was a tool of authoritarians. So, now we have millions of Americans who live in a fantasy world thinking their candidate had his re-election stolen from him. The alternate reality exists even when credible reality republicans and 63 court decisions including by many reality republican judges proves otherwise. This is a serious chasm in the foundation of our Republic.

          Social media and right wing networks are in an unholy league with well financed anti democracy forces including American financial interests, uberwealthy individuals, Russian oligarchs, the Putin government and other US enemies. It has become so dangerous that people like Tucker Carlson spew  anti democracy and anti American poison in public and the propagandized, poorly educated, grievance loaded follow him in a brain dead trance. 

        Briefly on partisan politics, Democrats should remember  most Americans "vote their pocketbook or wallet," as we used to say.

        Bread and butter issues, kitchen table budget matters are always the most important to voters. 

        The Democrats are weak in effective "messaging," which is more hurtful as they play uphill as the disinformation game is loaded against them.

        The US has a fifth column at work. The Republican party is only the visible face. The compromise of public debate by bogus issues and contrived culture war fanaticism is a product of a deliberate right wing strategy that is very adept at using the low information of US citizens, their lack of education and their unending devotion to social media, celebrity and their fear.  

        The wise women of intelligence say individual citizens need to work to combat the disinformation war. 

        -They urge we all challenge our emotions and our own implicit bias as we consume information.     

        -Check sources-look for previous articles and check the credential of the writer or broadcaster.

        -Read alternative views. Get out of your own opinion silo and read what others think or say. 

        -Think for yourself.

        -They note that a virtue of the US is we get to choose what to believe. That throws responsibility to us.

        The women conclude by saying it would be good to teach the "analytic trade craft" of the intelligence community to citizens. Critical analysis should be taught to children beginning in kindergarten.

        I suggest journalism clean up its own house. Pay more attention to how the spin masters are working. Overcome the penchant for "false equivalence" and provide training to new producers, writers and reporters, including history. Quit being used. Think more.

        As a nation we need to understand the seriousness of the battle between democracy and authoritarianism. 

        Social media needs to be reformed and regulated. They are manipulators of behavior, attitude and belief. Social media can be destructive, even deadly, especially among youth. 

        Haidt suggests "the biggest single change that would reduce toxicity of existing platforms would be user verification as a precondition for gaining the algorithmic amplification that social media offers."

        Democrats being democrats are still bruising each other while their minority faction of progressives get far more media attention than the majority of the party.

        The first amendment is an American strength, but we must find a way to minimize the damage being done and being conveyed by social media platforms that after all are data collecting and selling businesses. They are commercial schemes that benefit from controversy, but too they are tools, unwitting or otherwise, of those who wish to do America harm.

        They are part of a new addiction, they undermine truth, and they are, at the least, as much about disinformation as anything else.

        As we move forward to prosecute levels of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Russians, as we strive to restore civility to our own shores, as we wrestle with race, equity, and as we try to reconnect to truth and reality, we must control the primary medium of lies, distortion, and disinformation. US problems can be solved only in an arena of honesty and mutual respect.

        Anti American fifth column Republicans can still blather their fear mongering disinformation, but we need not, nor shouldn't expose ourselves to thousands of channels of lies that brainwash and seek to bring down democracy. 

        Question, challenge, think, analyze. 

        See you down the trail. 

WAR-The Mindset-The Risks

 

Nine Minutes Past Mid Night

brutality rising

    Human kind may be passing into a savage age. Markers are apparent; life upended by a virus, patterns of vicious and freak weather, social disorder, decline of civility, political degradation and now Russia's mad war of aggression in Europe. Any one is threatening, all of them could drag us out of the peaceful world our generations have enjoyed since the end of the second World War.

        We have lived in a rare interval of peace and well being in the span of a human history full of misery, suffering, darkness and brutality. 

        Within hours of Russia's invasion of Ukraine I sat in a briefing with six of the world's preeminent intelligence and security officers for a hard nosed assessment of where the new war finds us and what risks are ahead.

        The recent historic antecedent is Sudetenland in the late 30's. This is not about Ukraine and NATO, it is a manifestation of the Putin doctrine. It is an historic breaking of international law and rules, driven by man with a messianic complex who strives to change history to his shaping, remaking the map of Russia.

        The analysis from men who led Britain's MI 6, CIA, Canada's Security Intelligence Service, the British Foreign Office, and Homeland Security says Western response has been strong and united, but it will be tested by challenges, primarily economic costs. Western leadership is compromised by internal political division in the US, new leadership in Germany, Johnson's weak credibility in Britain, impatient domestic response and certitude. Taiwan looms over how this is resolved and they say it is likely to be a long process. 

        The invasion is a game changer, a disregard for law and is a piece of the rising authoritarian mindset that tramples, and seeks to destroy democratic structures and the rule of law and civil order. 

        There is a sense Putin is in an isolated state of mind as he demonstrates a messiah complex. He is in a dangerous state. He reads the West as being in a state of decay. The security veterans agree Putin must pay a heavy cost.

        The former senior CIA officer said we need to buckle up for a long ride, saying Putin's goals are beyond Ukraine, wanting to build the "Great Russia." Putin thinks "he can out suffer us, out last us and divide us."

        One of the men said we need to learn to deal with assertive and regressive leaders, that Putin is not alone. 

        They say this is an historic fight that can shape how succeeding generations will live, the degree to which law has value and meaning. Citizens should be informed of what is at risk and the cost. The costs will not be equally distributed. Gas and food costs will feed inflation in the US and elsewhere. 

        They warn of a possible spill over affect, perhaps by something as simple as a mistake. If any NATO nation is violated by cyber or military action, they say NATO must hit back with severity. 

fog in the valley, stars and moon 

        Repeatedly China was discussed. China will measure how resolved and lasting is the western response. Xi Jinping too thinks the West, especially the US is in decline and decay. He will calculate how we might respond to moves on Taiwan.

      They were quick to note the Russia-China alliance is not like the old Axis alliance of WWII. They say while China watches closely and shares a brutal resolve with Russia, it doesn't know how to be an ally. They will not make sacrifices for Russia. China will respect Putin as long as he does not get in the way or affect their agendas. 

        The China Belts and Roads initiative runs through the area of the conflict and neighboring nations. 

    

        Moments like this remind us of the interconnectedness of human endeavor and thought. In these closing paragraphs I seek to interpret the stark and hard-nosed assessment of men with years of real world knowledge, unknown to the majorities of the world.

        America has lost its way and is no longer the power that emerged from the end of WWII.

        How might this moment exist if Trump had not been subservient and a sycophant to Putin, taking Putin's word over the wisdom of his own national security apparatus?

        How might this moment look if Republicans had spotted in Trump the same authoritarian and reckless disregard for law and protocol as we see in Putin?

        How might this moment look if the Republican party stood up against the January 6th insurrection and all of the Trump effort to undermine an election and then attempt to overthrow the results? That was an invasion of our own sovereignty and dignity. And it followed the invasion of Putin's doctrine in our culture and politics.

        It is no wonder Putin and Xi look at us as in decay, and weak.

        The behavior of some elected office holders has been in my thinking traitorous. If I had my way they would be tried and if convicted they should be shot.

        I put in that number Trump, Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Lauren Boebert, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, John Kennedy.  I will not dignify what they have said but they have worked to undermine the US and the Western response to Putin's violation of international law. They are a pack of jackals in alliance with a Pariah.

       One of the British intelligence officers and a former Senior CIA officer said emphatically the Russian people must be made to pay, despite the pleas not to hurt the people because of Putin. The veteran's logic is, as long as their leader behaves as an international outlaw and Pariah, they too are culpable. They suggested yanking all Russian tourism visas, expelling Russians from international associations and sporting competitions, hitting them financially until they as a nation depose Putin or prevail at insisting the nation stop its illegal aggression.

    Until the US destroys the Republican Fifth Column we will indeed be weakened and it will encourage tyrants and assertive leaders such as Putin. Fox News personalities are amongst the anti American lobby and they have poisoned the minds of millions.

    Sad to say it, but those millions who think Trump won an election, or who elect fools like those named above, are also traitors to this nation and have contributed to the emboldening of a dictator. 

    Most of us have not lived through an event that is so precipitous. The best way forward is to adhere to principles of Westphalian Sovereignty, to listen to wisdom and experience, to remain true to our constitutional principles, think of the well being of all, reject emotion, propaganda and lies

and to be resolute and willing to pay the costs. To turn Putin on his own words, we must "out suffer, out last" him and not allow him to divide us any further.  It may take us into a brutal world, but we cannot relinquish our humanity or intelligence nor our will to prevail. 

   Stay strong.

   See you down the trail. 

Blues-Views-News

 "We all live under the same sky, 

but we don't all have the same horizon"

Konrad Adenauer  

        Coming across that quote this week, I thought we don't all have the same reality either, or language skills. 

       My reality was tweaked when I was in on a brief by Dr. Catherine Marsh former chief scientist for CIA's directorate of Science and Technology and now Director of  IARPA-Intelligence Advance Research Projects Activity. IARPA is the Intelligence Community version of DARPA. They are about finding and funding future technologies, systems and frontier new realities. 

       How about filing data using DNA? Maybe advanced polymorphous sequencing to increase security and save space. Server farms are energy hogs, take enormous physical space and have awful carbon footprints. DNA is tiny and tidy.

        

       Tech companies evangelize the Metaverse, maybe just a  buzzword. Still, we've entered a dimension where media called social is a battle ground and war zone that has polarized and  destroyed truth and fact.

        We live with it. Some can't live without it. Some kill themselves because of it. Privacy has vanished because of it.

        Who is doing something about it? 

        Meta data volume builds, and builds, and builds and flows to manipulators.

    

        IARPA is looking to protect algorithms, defend artificial intelligence, counter "deep fakes" and more they can't talk about.

        Imagine walking through any city or village in the world, seeing and hearing all that is going on, but doing it remotely. Our tax dollars are looking for a way.

        Mixed reality.

        

        Some recognize global challenges. 

        Some believe lies while others see the challenge to the American way and they respond.

        

        Words matter more than we may realize.

     A study published by the National Academy of Sciences finds the societal balance between emotion and reason has shifted back to what it was 150 years ago.

    Scholars from Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands and Indiana University studied word and language use since 1850. They discovered the shift from reason to emotion began in the 1980's and has accelerated since. 

    Truth, facts, and science have a hard time being heard in a climate where emotion trumps reason. The voices of our better angels have competition.

    Words have power and evoke a vision. 

        Journalist Ari Berman, a voting rights specialist, reported the 48 Senators who voted to reform the filibuster represent 182 million Americans, that is 55% of the population. The 52 Senators who upheld the filibuster represent 148 million Americans, only 45% of the US population.

        Realities?

        After that vote Republicans shook Senator Sinema's hand, glad to have a nominal Democrat join the new Jim Crow movement. Any doubt about that?  Here's a quote from Republican leader Mitch McConnell "African American voters are voting in just as high a percentage as Americans."  

        Mitch, you said that out loud.

          Sinema is a play for pay grifter/grafter girl.  She took big money from big pharma and voted against legislation to control medicine costs. She took hundreds of thousands of dollars from corporations and voted against increasing their taxes. You have to wonder who got to her on voting rights. 

        Reality: By their actions the Republican party is anti-majoritarian and anti-democratic.  

    As David Remnick wrote, "it has become a party less focused on traditional policy values and more on tribal affiliation and resentment."

     They may have short term gains, but a truth spoken by the greatest Republican consigns them to the ignominy of history, in a pile of those without value, the dishonored. Sinema and Manchin have their own asterisk on that list. 

"We cannot escape history. We of this congress and this administration will be remembered in spite of ourselves...the fiery trial through which we pass will light us down in honor or dishonor to the latest generation."

Abraham Lincoln

        

       My bet is Americans will be pushed back, watch rights be stripped away, and oppressed only so long before the great majority rises up against the tyranny of a minority and hand out prostitutes like Sinema and Manchin. 

            There's a lot of dread, justifiable too. Climate, nature and resources are in trouble. It maybe unrecognizable to this generation, but human civilization will find ways to live, adapt, innovate and find destiny.

        As IARPA, DARPA, Bio tech labs, medical discoveries, exploration, discovery and all kindred renaissance thinking invent the future, the human will and spirit will protect itself. 

        It's safe to conclude there will be awful tolls, and maybe so, but I think it would be great to live 50 to 100 years from now, just to see the reality, the fixes, adjustments, innovations and all the new realities we humans create. And, to meet the people as exotically different as we are from those who survived earlier plagues and wars and human catastasis.

        I'm also curious about where artificial reality, virtual reality, mixed reality, genetic design, cyborging, algorithmic cascade, DNA data files, and more take us. 

        But before we go too deeply into the future, I wonder what becomes of the house cleaning mother of five who is exhausting herself with work and worry, trying to keep her family fed and housed. Or the emigres stuck between working to make their dreams reality in the US and an inconsistent and ill defined policy and attitude about immigrants. Or the millions of other working poor facing inflation, already out of control housing costs, and lack of insurance and health security. Or those around the world, victims of war, starvation, authoritarian  regimes. Or those growing numbers of humans displaced by lack of water, resources and a changing climate.

        Wonderous things are indeed coming. I wonder if they will help us with compassion, caring, equity and fairness. It is hard to hear our better angels in the din of word wars and social media combat. Will we listen to each other? To wisdom?

        Do you think we'll learn to take care of the garden?  

        Do you think we'll be closer to having the same horizon?

        Stay safe.

        See you down the trail. 

 

The Virus in the Shadows

          Stability at home and strength of US leadership in the world is threatened by more than the virus we know. Another wasting disease casts shadows on the future. 

        Detailed here, from briefings, interviews, and conversations, are assessments and judgement of men and women who have advised and informed the policies of Presidents, Prime Ministers and their governments. I've participated in these sessions in recent months. These are the assessments of realists.                                                                                            

        Topics have included China, Russia, Iran, the Middle East region, terrorism, cyber warfare, counter intelligence, weapons systems, technology, defense procurement, the changing nature of spying, alliances, hot spots, nuclear weapons and threats to America's democratic republic. 

        This post examines the present danger and damage of  deliberate deception, and the anti democracy fascism that fogs our constitutional principles and aspirations.

        "For 70 years foreign policy was not a partisan issue in Washington, but now it is," says John Sawer, who was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service in Britain, MI6.

        "So, friends and hostile nations will have trouble in thinking in terms of American strategy in periods of decades, because it might change every four years."

From The Radio Historian

        MI6 was founded in 1909. It is the senior intelligence service in the world and helped nurture the birth of the US CIA,  assisting the OSS (Office of Strategic Service) during World War II. They are an ally who knows us well.

        Sawer says both the UK and US have been through political upheaval, a kind of residual reaction to the crash of 08. 

        "The best plan forward is to put our own homes and systems in order. In the UK that is absorb the cost of Brexit. In the US it is to somehow not just relaunch the economy and get control of COVID, but to find a way to develop a polity, a consistency and a durability to America's role in the world, or American will be in decline. The decline is certain if it just swings back and forth every four years."

        The Biden administration declared "America is back," and he has begun to shore up alliances, and return a respectability to our foreign policy, but our standing in the world is damaged. We are no longer seen as the strong force, the leader of the free world, a beacon of democracy.

        "There is some concern about whether the US word and commitment will be reliable, especially since Trump is in the background as a force in US politics," says John Brennan former director of the CIA. He worked for 6 US Presidents.

        "Trump as laid waste to our credibility and reliability. It will take time to restore confidence that commitments will outlive changes in the White House. This is something to confront, because in the last 4 years, many years of trust in the US word and commitment is challenged."

        The malignancy of Trump was apparent in the view of Homeland Security, Cyber Security and Infrastructure officers and veterans when we discussed the US election campaign, social media influence, and the cascading affect of the big lie.

        Belief in and the credibility our system has been and is being eroded by intentional deception, and behavior that condones it. 

    

        A former CIA chief of station, with over 30 years of distinguished service including in the former Soviet Union, Europe and war zones in the Middle East and South Asia offers a harsh truth. Donald Trump enabled Russia in it's efforts to undermine and disparage our democratic process.

      "That is the first thing they're focused on, trying to portray our process as inherently unstable and in conflict with our supposed democratic values. It doesn't matter that they're an autocracy. They don't want their people to see us as an inspiration to those Russians striving for democracy."

        I withhold his name because he is still active. But he is emphatic in his assessment of how Trump was used for anti American purposes.

       "Putin is very active in public propaganda and information warfare. Through his propaganda arm he does not want the US to be a beacon of hope. He needs to continue to emphasize the US is unstable."

        Trump's prolonged attack on US media, the undermining of the election and judicial process were powerful weapons. Russia's interests were seen early. 

        "That Trump Tower meeting was meant to be discovered. Don Jr. took the cheese from Putin's mousetrap," he said, citing it as one of many public relations victories and instances where Trump was outplayed by a wily intelligence officer, Putin.

            The path to an improved image and renewed strength of leadership is challenged by the Republican party's turn to fascism and authoritarianism. Unless his mounting legal woes disable him, Trump wields power. Republicans running for office can either bend to the boss and his world of lies and deception or be run out by the mob of racists, zealots and lunatics who are taking over state parties, driven by Trump's nationalistic fantasies. 

           The Republican party is at war with itself and betting is on the fascist wing and those disconnected from reality, fed by the far right media. 

         Analysts say Republicans have become the party of deception, at the federal and state level. It is there tactic in a winner all view of the world. Recent examples being cited is the McConnell flip flop flip on Trump, Texas Governor Abbott's deceit about the role of wind power in the recent power grid crash, McCarthy on the Covid bail out package, Cruz, Jordan, Hawley and Johnson on the Capitol insurrection. And it goes on. 

       A common theme of the briefings was domestic terrorism and the rise of armed militias. The Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, Boogaloo and others were part of the Capitol invasion. Local, state and federal authorities are warned to be vigilant and prepared for other acts;  attempted kidnapping of a officials, State House invasions, bombings, and shootings. There is  concern over security of the State of the Union address when most of the government is assembled in the Capitol.

        The danger is underscored by what investigators are learning about inside influence in planning the attempted coup. 

       Of concern at home it sends signals to the world. As long as members of the Senate and House continue to placate Trump, perpetuate his lies, and enable the fascist and thug control of the Republican party, they play into division, deception, enable our adversaries and enemies, and undercut the nation's authority.

 

        The breeding of instability at home, weakens us, makes us less secure and contributes to a dangerous change in the balance of power abroad.                                                                                                                                        

         While this post examines the legacy of the inner turmoil on ourselves and our position in the world, a linked topic is the rise of China.

          General David Petraeus and Christian Brose spoke to China's influence as we have been weakened in the eyes of the world.

        "For 25 years China has tried to disrupt our military development and research. They are very competitive and they play by different objectives." Petraeus

        "We need to rethink what we are strategizing in that region. What does national security look like in the absence of our dominance?" Brose

        Petraeus is former Director of the CIA and is a retired US Army General with 37 years in uniform.

        Christian Brose was staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, a senior policy adviser to Senator John McCain and adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

        While rogues and fascism destroy the party Brose served, US is weakened. It happens as China is on a trajectory to become the dominant military force in the world. 

        "This requires changes in systems, postures and at home. I am concerned at damage done to alliances and strategic partnership, especially at a time when we need to rely on them more."  Brose

        In decades of reporting I've worked with intelligence officers, analysts and national security people. They are skilled at getting to the point. They are capable, thoughtful and engaged in facts, finding them and analyzing them. They deal with complexity, distant horizons, multiplicity of patterns, input, motivations, intent and they make sense of it.  They can be the very opposite of the public officials and politicians who task or review them and who use their product. 

        

      China benefits as we continue to handicap ourselves. But it is the former KGB officer in the gilded offices in the Kremlin who looks to America, sees what the last four years did to his adversary, and watches as one of America's parties devolves to a gang and mob, and he smiles. One of his intelligence services in the meantime has invaded American cyber systems, manipulated elections, driven social media deception, and he smiles even more.

     Biden's priority has been to attack Covid and its impact on people and the nation as a whole. 

     He has also signaled the America First nationalism of Trump has been trashed. Trump still breaths however, given life by a Republican party that has become a threat to the nation by enforcing the power of the mad mob boss from Mar a Lago. 

    As long as Trump lurks as a shadow influence, he remains a petulant virus in American culture and politics. Variants of Trump are already jockeying for position, and his state party apparatus have begun efforts to suppress and limit voting. 

     Le Carre', Clancy, Ludlum, Forysth, Greene, and Fleming could not have written such a plot.

        What do the realists conclude? We are in trouble and there is thrashing and winnowing to do, to save our future. Truth, an adherence and devotion to it, is a good start. As children we were taught it is wrong to lie. This nation needs to live into that.

        From time to time subsequently, I'll offer more from my notes as we continue our briefings and decipher the times. 

        Stay well.

        See you down the trail.