LIVING WITH PUTIN, OR NOT!

             Hoping to provide a least a momentary break by sharing images of where I've sought solace while ruminating about Putin and his evil and destructive arc. 

        Longtime readers may recall the December 2013 post "A Bullet for Putin?" It was another of the "tells" that I saw in his emerging philosophy and world view. He has been signaling his messianic intentions to change the world map and elevate himself to that of a czar and hero of the fatherland. 

        So how do we live in a world with Putin? How do we behave, upholding human civility and the sanctity of law, while a thug with no regard for life or territorial integrity invades and attacks, committing war crimes?

            To a straightforward mind it seems wrong not to be more aggressive and to intervene to stop the invasion and brutality. That has been the plea of the Ukrainian people and President Zelensky. However from the safety of not being bombed and invaded, the world's response has been to leverage war without escalating the violence, which could quickly lead to a World War. That is made more frightening by Putin's irrationality and his stance on nuclear weapons.

        The sanctions and diplomacy are important and have already begun to have a cratering impact on Russia. But if you are a Ukrainian it seems to be not enough.

        There are larger issues here. Putin must be stopped and must be made to pay a high price. If not, he will continue with his messianic vision and mad agenda. 

        If the west were to respond militarily, they could stop the invasion where it is and if inclined could seriously damage Russian military infrastructure. Punishing strikes on Russian bases might seem an effective response to such lawless and blatant aggression. But that takes the war to Russia and there would be dire consequences.

            The draconian sanctions are a way to degrade Russian power and perhaps force and incentivize the Russian military to stop Putin. 

        The Russian economy is in free fall. Increasingly Russia is being cut off from the world. The millions of Russian citizens are unwitting victims of Putin's war. He has moved the nation backwards. The war crimes being committed are being catalogued and investigated already. This will reach into the military and the bureaucracy. Sources in the West are communicating with sources in Russia with the objective of giving doubting Russians a path to depose Putin, or to circumvent his war plans.     

            That is the best hope, and it is only that. It may be that Russian citizens will be so hurt by a devastated and isolated "life as normal"  they will find a way, even in the face of arrest and jail for speaking against Putin and his war. There may be a common sense in the military command to reason that Putin is indeed mad, out of touch with the legacy impact of his actions and that he is just wrong. The only way forward for Putin is to pursue his own grandiose vision and the Generals know there are costs, and strategic disadvantages. Finally, most of them do not want to be tried for the war crimes. 

            When the Soviet Union collapsed it was Red Army Generals who made a secret trip to Washington to talk about the disposition of Soviet nuclear warheads on land, on submarines and on airplanes. Two heroic US Senators did what James Baker and George HW Bush did not, that was to meet with the Generals and to begin the process to secure the old Soviet war heads. 

            Republican Dick Lugar and Democrat Sam Nunn put themselves at risk by traveling, negotiating and working with former Soviet commanders to keep the war heads safe, off the black market and secure. It began as an emergency appropriation, became the Nunn-Lugar Act and eventually the Cooperative Threat Reduction program.

            Russian military leadership called a halt to the Russo Japanese conflict in 1905. Again in 1917 the Russian military just quit fighting, tried of World War I. US and Russian counterparts have communicated periodically in the last half of the 20th Century and in the 21st. Military leaders understand the risk of modern warfare to the future of life on the planet.

            The first KGB officer to rule was Yuri Andropov in the 1980's. It was during this reign that planning to stage and survive a nuclear exchange was undertaken. Even though Andropov increased military spending, creating hardship in his economy to lavish the Generals, it was the military who began to reach out the west to alert the world to how "hair trigger" the nuclear game had become. The Russian military and the KGB have different world views. 

        I expect as the war crimes and the brutality of the unprovoked war continue there will increasing debate in the west, among NATO and in the US about upping our response, getting more militarily involved. 

        There is truth in the historic comparisons and questions about "what if" Hitler's early invasions and lunatic aspirations were stopped. If Putin is able to succeed in changing the map, or even survive, he will be empowered and emboldened. In my view, there is no place in the modern world for people like Putin, other than in prison or dead and used as an example. 

        

        Putin is a demonstration of why there are alliances, why NATO is important. He is an example of why democracy is essential and why authoritarians are dangerous and should be permitted only in ancient history. 

        A final thought for now. As we watch history made be careful of what you see in public opinion polls. The media ballyhoos them. 

        They are positioned as an entre' into the public mind or a validation or repudiation of a policy or statement. After several decades in journalism I've come to think there is too much emphasis on the "take" or meaning of the polls. 

        Some questions surpass public knowledge or understanding. The polls only compound false assumptions or  misrepresentation. Too many people react based on emotion and feeling instead of facts or critical reasoning. Too many people are in their own confirming information silos and do not have a complete or broad understanding.  

        A terrible use is to pose a simplistic question like "Should the US use military force to support Ukraine?" or "Should the US do more...." Yes public policy needs public acceptance, but asking an increasingly ill informed, even misinformed social media fed public is as useful as me asking the shelled denizens of the tidal pool, can I walk on water. 

        BTW there is a self portrait of sorts in the first frame.

        Nothing is a simple as some will try to make you think it is. Nothing is more difficult than watching innocents suffer, unless it is finding a way to end the violence.

        I hope a truce can be struck, and that combatants will be separated by a UN resolution. The negotiations that I hope will come will be a challenge. It will be difficult for Putin to accept anything less than some gain, and in my view that is too much.

        Modern history tells us tyrants and power mad men like Putin need to be cut down, earlier rather than later. But it has to be done properly. 

        We are in a brutal time. We can counter a bit by our humane support for Ukrainians, those who are left behind, and those who seek refuge. Everyone can do something. 

        Remember to unplug occasionally, breath deeply and de-stress.

        Peace!  

        See you down the trail. 

        

    

The Virus in the Shadows

          Stability at home and strength of US leadership in the world is threatened by more than the virus we know. Another wasting disease casts shadows on the future. 

        Detailed here, from briefings, interviews, and conversations, are assessments and judgement of men and women who have advised and informed the policies of Presidents, Prime Ministers and their governments. I've participated in these sessions in recent months. These are the assessments of realists.                                                                                            

        Topics have included China, Russia, Iran, the Middle East region, terrorism, cyber warfare, counter intelligence, weapons systems, technology, defense procurement, the changing nature of spying, alliances, hot spots, nuclear weapons and threats to America's democratic republic. 

        This post examines the present danger and damage of  deliberate deception, and the anti democracy fascism that fogs our constitutional principles and aspirations.

        "For 70 years foreign policy was not a partisan issue in Washington, but now it is," says John Sawer, who was Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service in Britain, MI6.

        "So, friends and hostile nations will have trouble in thinking in terms of American strategy in periods of decades, because it might change every four years."

From The Radio Historian

        MI6 was founded in 1909. It is the senior intelligence service in the world and helped nurture the birth of the US CIA,  assisting the OSS (Office of Strategic Service) during World War II. They are an ally who knows us well.

        Sawer says both the UK and US have been through political upheaval, a kind of residual reaction to the crash of 08. 

        "The best plan forward is to put our own homes and systems in order. In the UK that is absorb the cost of Brexit. In the US it is to somehow not just relaunch the economy and get control of COVID, but to find a way to develop a polity, a consistency and a durability to America's role in the world, or American will be in decline. The decline is certain if it just swings back and forth every four years."

        The Biden administration declared "America is back," and he has begun to shore up alliances, and return a respectability to our foreign policy, but our standing in the world is damaged. We are no longer seen as the strong force, the leader of the free world, a beacon of democracy.

        "There is some concern about whether the US word and commitment will be reliable, especially since Trump is in the background as a force in US politics," says John Brennan former director of the CIA. He worked for 6 US Presidents.

        "Trump as laid waste to our credibility and reliability. It will take time to restore confidence that commitments will outlive changes in the White House. This is something to confront, because in the last 4 years, many years of trust in the US word and commitment is challenged."

        The malignancy of Trump was apparent in the view of Homeland Security, Cyber Security and Infrastructure officers and veterans when we discussed the US election campaign, social media influence, and the cascading affect of the big lie.

        Belief in and the credibility our system has been and is being eroded by intentional deception, and behavior that condones it. 

    

        A former CIA chief of station, with over 30 years of distinguished service including in the former Soviet Union, Europe and war zones in the Middle East and South Asia offers a harsh truth. Donald Trump enabled Russia in it's efforts to undermine and disparage our democratic process.

      "That is the first thing they're focused on, trying to portray our process as inherently unstable and in conflict with our supposed democratic values. It doesn't matter that they're an autocracy. They don't want their people to see us as an inspiration to those Russians striving for democracy."

        I withhold his name because he is still active. But he is emphatic in his assessment of how Trump was used for anti American purposes.

       "Putin is very active in public propaganda and information warfare. Through his propaganda arm he does not want the US to be a beacon of hope. He needs to continue to emphasize the US is unstable."

        Trump's prolonged attack on US media, the undermining of the election and judicial process were powerful weapons. Russia's interests were seen early. 

        "That Trump Tower meeting was meant to be discovered. Don Jr. took the cheese from Putin's mousetrap," he said, citing it as one of many public relations victories and instances where Trump was outplayed by a wily intelligence officer, Putin.

            The path to an improved image and renewed strength of leadership is challenged by the Republican party's turn to fascism and authoritarianism. Unless his mounting legal woes disable him, Trump wields power. Republicans running for office can either bend to the boss and his world of lies and deception or be run out by the mob of racists, zealots and lunatics who are taking over state parties, driven by Trump's nationalistic fantasies. 

           The Republican party is at war with itself and betting is on the fascist wing and those disconnected from reality, fed by the far right media. 

         Analysts say Republicans have become the party of deception, at the federal and state level. It is there tactic in a winner all view of the world. Recent examples being cited is the McConnell flip flop flip on Trump, Texas Governor Abbott's deceit about the role of wind power in the recent power grid crash, McCarthy on the Covid bail out package, Cruz, Jordan, Hawley and Johnson on the Capitol insurrection. And it goes on. 

       A common theme of the briefings was domestic terrorism and the rise of armed militias. The Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, Boogaloo and others were part of the Capitol invasion. Local, state and federal authorities are warned to be vigilant and prepared for other acts;  attempted kidnapping of a officials, State House invasions, bombings, and shootings. There is  concern over security of the State of the Union address when most of the government is assembled in the Capitol.

        The danger is underscored by what investigators are learning about inside influence in planning the attempted coup. 

       Of concern at home it sends signals to the world. As long as members of the Senate and House continue to placate Trump, perpetuate his lies, and enable the fascist and thug control of the Republican party, they play into division, deception, enable our adversaries and enemies, and undercut the nation's authority.

 

        The breeding of instability at home, weakens us, makes us less secure and contributes to a dangerous change in the balance of power abroad.                                                                                                                                        

         While this post examines the legacy of the inner turmoil on ourselves and our position in the world, a linked topic is the rise of China.

          General David Petraeus and Christian Brose spoke to China's influence as we have been weakened in the eyes of the world.

        "For 25 years China has tried to disrupt our military development and research. They are very competitive and they play by different objectives." Petraeus

        "We need to rethink what we are strategizing in that region. What does national security look like in the absence of our dominance?" Brose

        Petraeus is former Director of the CIA and is a retired US Army General with 37 years in uniform.

        Christian Brose was staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, a senior policy adviser to Senator John McCain and adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

        While rogues and fascism destroy the party Brose served, US is weakened. It happens as China is on a trajectory to become the dominant military force in the world. 

        "This requires changes in systems, postures and at home. I am concerned at damage done to alliances and strategic partnership, especially at a time when we need to rely on them more."  Brose

        In decades of reporting I've worked with intelligence officers, analysts and national security people. They are skilled at getting to the point. They are capable, thoughtful and engaged in facts, finding them and analyzing them. They deal with complexity, distant horizons, multiplicity of patterns, input, motivations, intent and they make sense of it.  They can be the very opposite of the public officials and politicians who task or review them and who use their product. 

        

      China benefits as we continue to handicap ourselves. But it is the former KGB officer in the gilded offices in the Kremlin who looks to America, sees what the last four years did to his adversary, and watches as one of America's parties devolves to a gang and mob, and he smiles. One of his intelligence services in the meantime has invaded American cyber systems, manipulated elections, driven social media deception, and he smiles even more.

     Biden's priority has been to attack Covid and its impact on people and the nation as a whole. 

     He has also signaled the America First nationalism of Trump has been trashed. Trump still breaths however, given life by a Republican party that has become a threat to the nation by enforcing the power of the mad mob boss from Mar a Lago. 

    As long as Trump lurks as a shadow influence, he remains a petulant virus in American culture and politics. Variants of Trump are already jockeying for position, and his state party apparatus have begun efforts to suppress and limit voting. 

     Le Carre', Clancy, Ludlum, Forysth, Greene, and Fleming could not have written such a plot.

        What do the realists conclude? We are in trouble and there is thrashing and winnowing to do, to save our future. Truth, an adherence and devotion to it, is a good start. As children we were taught it is wrong to lie. This nation needs to live into that.

        From time to time subsequently, I'll offer more from my notes as we continue our briefings and decipher the times. 

        Stay well.

        See you down the trail.

        

        

A BULLET FOR PUTIN? A RADICAL STAR FOR THE POPE

VLAD AND THE POPE
A COSMIC ODD COUPLE

     "Please, just a couple of reverse angle shots Mr. President," the Russian State Television photographer said quietly as he moved his camera to stand behind Vladimir Putin, seated in the ornate chair in an elegant Kremlin grand room.

     "Make it fast!" Putin snarls.

     "Yes, This will do it," Serge grins behind the President, lowering the camera with his left hand as his right had snaps from his behind back and in an instant discharges a bullet into the back of Putin's skull."

      A bit melodramatic, but this snippet is a poetic sense of what the former KGB bad boy has done to another piece of freedom in Russia, at least faux freedom. In a single action, Putin has killed RIA Novosti a state news service and replaced it with Russia Today, a propaganda mill.  

      True it is that RIA was a state controlled service, but it had evinced a nod toward real journalism and even criticism of the Kremlin. Vlad the powerful has ended that, like a bullet to the head.

                            THE POPE IS A RADICAL

HE IS A CHRISTIAN

     We've watched self proclaimed Christians and a whole boatload of wing nuts get heart burn over the pronouncements and actions of Pope Francis. 

       That fat blowhard on the radio called him a Marxist, which underscores the big mouth indeed has a little brain.  Marx was a political theorist.  Pope Francis is a spiritual leader, espousing the teaching of a radical Rabbi who's plan for humankind was a tad bit more profound, and originated more personally. The Pope decried the worship or idolizing of money and materialism and he's said a few other things that make the comfortable and smug uncomfortable and mugged. His talk about sexuality has some putting on their best Salem Mass. attitude and logic.

      As we head through this (your choice) Advent, Christmas, Holiday, Kwanza-Season, could we have two better leading men that Vladimir and Francis?

      As a dedicated idealist I offer that Vlad is very much one of the best players in the power games of this planet. But Pope Francis is operating from higher ground. Service, sacrifice and love require giving. The Putins of the world are about taking. Mr Putin may continue to take, but this Pope continues to offer.  

      Putin, the blowhards and apoplectic narrow minded belong to the past. Not so this Pope, and I'm not even a Catholic. 

      A final deliberation -Could we have a better guardian angel of this year's season than Nelson Mandela, giver and forgiver?

FRAMING THE SKY

    See you down the trail.

LIMBAUGH, SANTORUM & PUTIN-WHO IS THE JERK & WHO IS THE IDIOT? PLUS LOVELY SCENES

RUSH IS THE JERK 

     Advertisers continue to bail out on the gas bag. At his

best Limbaugh was a mildly amusing talker who knew a little

about marketing from his days as a pr flack and baseball pimp.  That he went from a goof ball to a political force is

merely a testament to how low brow American politics has

descended.  But this latest episode of his verbal assault on a woman has caused many to begin to smell the coffee. Why 

anyone took his views as serious is mystifying, maybe now

some of those followers will see him for what he really is.

He is only a performer, a phony, playing to a crowd. He is 

just a talker.

     What he said was wrong by any definition.  He will probably survive this meltdown, but the trash heap of over stuffed egos would be too good a place for the jerk.  He's mean, devious, laughing all the way to the bank and should be water boarded  until Dick Cheney runs to his rescue. That is run, physically, in person.

RICK SANTORUM MUST BE STUPID TOO

     This doofus is the worst thing for Republicans since

since mold on bread.  In this democratic republic even extremists or idiots are entitled to their view, but no one should draw political boundaries or build a following based on the assumption their theology is better than anyone else's. That's the province of the wacko brand of Islamic fundamentalist Imams who train young boys to be bombers.  Santorum is actually dangerous.  His brand Catholicism embarrasses many Roman Catholics and diverges from the church's larger view.

      Why moderate, centrist, intelligent Republicans have not spoken out against him defies explanation. Even the religious right should sanction this fool.

NOW LETS SEE HOW THE STRONG MAN WILL PLAY IT. 

VLADIMIR THAT IS

     Putin, who is light years more intelligent and enlightened than either of the cretins referred to above, now faces a tough spot.  Elected to a 6 year term, to his old post as President of Russia, he will have to confront the rapidly growing opposition movement.  The anti Putin demonstrations were the most significant public outpouring of that kind in decades in Russia.  

     Putin was an unlikely candidate to begin with. Before his earlier rise to political influence he had been one of those gray, faceless, technocrats in the old KGB.  Putin is smart,

has demonstrated he knows how to wield power and he is tough.  But this challenge is something new. Will he result to old Soviet ways of dealing with the growing opposition movement, or will he pushed to find a more rational way? Regardless, it appears he's going to have some homegrown issues to occupy his new Presidency.

DAY BOOK

CALIFORNIA SPRING, GREEN & MORRO ROCK

     An almond tree in March bloom at the Pipestone Vineyard.

     In the distant horizon, the famed Morro Rock. Shot from
Highway 46, Green Valley Road, earning its name.

      Look at the difference of a couple of hours in the frame 
above and below.

   Shadows play nicely on the undulations of the Santa Lucia highlands.

    One more frame of almond blooms.