LIVING WITH PUTIN, OR NOT!

             Hoping to provide a least a momentary break by sharing images of where I've sought solace while ruminating about Putin and his evil and destructive arc. 

        Longtime readers may recall the December 2013 post "A Bullet for Putin?" It was another of the "tells" that I saw in his emerging philosophy and world view. He has been signaling his messianic intentions to change the world map and elevate himself to that of a czar and hero of the fatherland. 

        So how do we live in a world with Putin? How do we behave, upholding human civility and the sanctity of law, while a thug with no regard for life or territorial integrity invades and attacks, committing war crimes?

            To a straightforward mind it seems wrong not to be more aggressive and to intervene to stop the invasion and brutality. That has been the plea of the Ukrainian people and President Zelensky. However from the safety of not being bombed and invaded, the world's response has been to leverage war without escalating the violence, which could quickly lead to a World War. That is made more frightening by Putin's irrationality and his stance on nuclear weapons.

        The sanctions and diplomacy are important and have already begun to have a cratering impact on Russia. But if you are a Ukrainian it seems to be not enough.

        There are larger issues here. Putin must be stopped and must be made to pay a high price. If not, he will continue with his messianic vision and mad agenda. 

        If the west were to respond militarily, they could stop the invasion where it is and if inclined could seriously damage Russian military infrastructure. Punishing strikes on Russian bases might seem an effective response to such lawless and blatant aggression. But that takes the war to Russia and there would be dire consequences.

            The draconian sanctions are a way to degrade Russian power and perhaps force and incentivize the Russian military to stop Putin. 

        The Russian economy is in free fall. Increasingly Russia is being cut off from the world. The millions of Russian citizens are unwitting victims of Putin's war. He has moved the nation backwards. The war crimes being committed are being catalogued and investigated already. This will reach into the military and the bureaucracy. Sources in the West are communicating with sources in Russia with the objective of giving doubting Russians a path to depose Putin, or to circumvent his war plans.     

            That is the best hope, and it is only that. It may be that Russian citizens will be so hurt by a devastated and isolated "life as normal"  they will find a way, even in the face of arrest and jail for speaking against Putin and his war. There may be a common sense in the military command to reason that Putin is indeed mad, out of touch with the legacy impact of his actions and that he is just wrong. The only way forward for Putin is to pursue his own grandiose vision and the Generals know there are costs, and strategic disadvantages. Finally, most of them do not want to be tried for the war crimes. 

            When the Soviet Union collapsed it was Red Army Generals who made a secret trip to Washington to talk about the disposition of Soviet nuclear warheads on land, on submarines and on airplanes. Two heroic US Senators did what James Baker and George HW Bush did not, that was to meet with the Generals and to begin the process to secure the old Soviet war heads. 

            Republican Dick Lugar and Democrat Sam Nunn put themselves at risk by traveling, negotiating and working with former Soviet commanders to keep the war heads safe, off the black market and secure. It began as an emergency appropriation, became the Nunn-Lugar Act and eventually the Cooperative Threat Reduction program.

            Russian military leadership called a halt to the Russo Japanese conflict in 1905. Again in 1917 the Russian military just quit fighting, tried of World War I. US and Russian counterparts have communicated periodically in the last half of the 20th Century and in the 21st. Military leaders understand the risk of modern warfare to the future of life on the planet.

            The first KGB officer to rule was Yuri Andropov in the 1980's. It was during this reign that planning to stage and survive a nuclear exchange was undertaken. Even though Andropov increased military spending, creating hardship in his economy to lavish the Generals, it was the military who began to reach out the west to alert the world to how "hair trigger" the nuclear game had become. The Russian military and the KGB have different world views. 

        I expect as the war crimes and the brutality of the unprovoked war continue there will increasing debate in the west, among NATO and in the US about upping our response, getting more militarily involved. 

        There is truth in the historic comparisons and questions about "what if" Hitler's early invasions and lunatic aspirations were stopped. If Putin is able to succeed in changing the map, or even survive, he will be empowered and emboldened. In my view, there is no place in the modern world for people like Putin, other than in prison or dead and used as an example. 

        

        Putin is a demonstration of why there are alliances, why NATO is important. He is an example of why democracy is essential and why authoritarians are dangerous and should be permitted only in ancient history. 

        A final thought for now. As we watch history made be careful of what you see in public opinion polls. The media ballyhoos them. 

        They are positioned as an entre' into the public mind or a validation or repudiation of a policy or statement. After several decades in journalism I've come to think there is too much emphasis on the "take" or meaning of the polls. 

        Some questions surpass public knowledge or understanding. The polls only compound false assumptions or  misrepresentation. Too many people react based on emotion and feeling instead of facts or critical reasoning. Too many people are in their own confirming information silos and do not have a complete or broad understanding.  

        A terrible use is to pose a simplistic question like "Should the US use military force to support Ukraine?" or "Should the US do more...." Yes public policy needs public acceptance, but asking an increasingly ill informed, even misinformed social media fed public is as useful as me asking the shelled denizens of the tidal pool, can I walk on water. 

        BTW there is a self portrait of sorts in the first frame.

        Nothing is a simple as some will try to make you think it is. Nothing is more difficult than watching innocents suffer, unless it is finding a way to end the violence.

        I hope a truce can be struck, and that combatants will be separated by a UN resolution. The negotiations that I hope will come will be a challenge. It will be difficult for Putin to accept anything less than some gain, and in my view that is too much.

        Modern history tells us tyrants and power mad men like Putin need to be cut down, earlier rather than later. But it has to be done properly. 

        We are in a brutal time. We can counter a bit by our humane support for Ukrainians, those who are left behind, and those who seek refuge. Everyone can do something. 

        Remember to unplug occasionally, breath deeply and de-stress.

        Peace!  

        See you down the trail. 

        

    

WAR-The Mindset-The Risks

 

Nine Minutes Past Mid Night

brutality rising

    Human kind may be passing into a savage age. Markers are apparent; life upended by a virus, patterns of vicious and freak weather, social disorder, decline of civility, political degradation and now Russia's mad war of aggression in Europe. Any one is threatening, all of them could drag us out of the peaceful world our generations have enjoyed since the end of the second World War.

        We have lived in a rare interval of peace and well being in the span of a human history full of misery, suffering, darkness and brutality. 

        Within hours of Russia's invasion of Ukraine I sat in a briefing with six of the world's preeminent intelligence and security officers for a hard nosed assessment of where the new war finds us and what risks are ahead.

        The recent historic antecedent is Sudetenland in the late 30's. This is not about Ukraine and NATO, it is a manifestation of the Putin doctrine. It is an historic breaking of international law and rules, driven by man with a messianic complex who strives to change history to his shaping, remaking the map of Russia.

        The analysis from men who led Britain's MI 6, CIA, Canada's Security Intelligence Service, the British Foreign Office, and Homeland Security says Western response has been strong and united, but it will be tested by challenges, primarily economic costs. Western leadership is compromised by internal political division in the US, new leadership in Germany, Johnson's weak credibility in Britain, impatient domestic response and certitude. Taiwan looms over how this is resolved and they say it is likely to be a long process. 

        The invasion is a game changer, a disregard for law and is a piece of the rising authoritarian mindset that tramples, and seeks to destroy democratic structures and the rule of law and civil order. 

        There is a sense Putin is in an isolated state of mind as he demonstrates a messiah complex. He is in a dangerous state. He reads the West as being in a state of decay. The security veterans agree Putin must pay a heavy cost.

        The former senior CIA officer said we need to buckle up for a long ride, saying Putin's goals are beyond Ukraine, wanting to build the "Great Russia." Putin thinks "he can out suffer us, out last us and divide us."

        One of the men said we need to learn to deal with assertive and regressive leaders, that Putin is not alone. 

        They say this is an historic fight that can shape how succeeding generations will live, the degree to which law has value and meaning. Citizens should be informed of what is at risk and the cost. The costs will not be equally distributed. Gas and food costs will feed inflation in the US and elsewhere. 

        They warn of a possible spill over affect, perhaps by something as simple as a mistake. If any NATO nation is violated by cyber or military action, they say NATO must hit back with severity. 

fog in the valley, stars and moon 

        Repeatedly China was discussed. China will measure how resolved and lasting is the western response. Xi Jinping too thinks the West, especially the US is in decline and decay. He will calculate how we might respond to moves on Taiwan.

      They were quick to note the Russia-China alliance is not like the old Axis alliance of WWII. They say while China watches closely and shares a brutal resolve with Russia, it doesn't know how to be an ally. They will not make sacrifices for Russia. China will respect Putin as long as he does not get in the way or affect their agendas. 

        The China Belts and Roads initiative runs through the area of the conflict and neighboring nations. 

    

        Moments like this remind us of the interconnectedness of human endeavor and thought. In these closing paragraphs I seek to interpret the stark and hard-nosed assessment of men with years of real world knowledge, unknown to the majorities of the world.

        America has lost its way and is no longer the power that emerged from the end of WWII.

        How might this moment exist if Trump had not been subservient and a sycophant to Putin, taking Putin's word over the wisdom of his own national security apparatus?

        How might this moment look if Republicans had spotted in Trump the same authoritarian and reckless disregard for law and protocol as we see in Putin?

        How might this moment look if the Republican party stood up against the January 6th insurrection and all of the Trump effort to undermine an election and then attempt to overthrow the results? That was an invasion of our own sovereignty and dignity. And it followed the invasion of Putin's doctrine in our culture and politics.

        It is no wonder Putin and Xi look at us as in decay, and weak.

        The behavior of some elected office holders has been in my thinking traitorous. If I had my way they would be tried and if convicted they should be shot.

        I put in that number Trump, Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Lauren Boebert, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, John Kennedy.  I will not dignify what they have said but they have worked to undermine the US and the Western response to Putin's violation of international law. They are a pack of jackals in alliance with a Pariah.

       One of the British intelligence officers and a former Senior CIA officer said emphatically the Russian people must be made to pay, despite the pleas not to hurt the people because of Putin. The veteran's logic is, as long as their leader behaves as an international outlaw and Pariah, they too are culpable. They suggested yanking all Russian tourism visas, expelling Russians from international associations and sporting competitions, hitting them financially until they as a nation depose Putin or prevail at insisting the nation stop its illegal aggression.

    Until the US destroys the Republican Fifth Column we will indeed be weakened and it will encourage tyrants and assertive leaders such as Putin. Fox News personalities are amongst the anti American lobby and they have poisoned the minds of millions.

    Sad to say it, but those millions who think Trump won an election, or who elect fools like those named above, are also traitors to this nation and have contributed to the emboldening of a dictator. 

    Most of us have not lived through an event that is so precipitous. The best way forward is to adhere to principles of Westphalian Sovereignty, to listen to wisdom and experience, to remain true to our constitutional principles, think of the well being of all, reject emotion, propaganda and lies

and to be resolute and willing to pay the costs. To turn Putin on his own words, we must "out suffer, out last" him and not allow him to divide us any further.  It may take us into a brutal world, but we cannot relinquish our humanity or intelligence nor our will to prevail. 

   Stay strong.

   See you down the trail. 

Is Winter Weather a Grind?

 A Winter Diversion

        After a while snow, ice, gray skies, freezing temperatures and being confined inside is a drag. I know. 

        So, what if your job is a beach?

        And what if waring 5000 pound elephant seals were a job hazard?

    

        That's the deal for a couple of Cal Poly researchers recording behavior and communication sounds of elephant seals at our local rookery. The battling brutes kept wrestling closer to equipment.

        Try being nonchalant as the bull edges ever closer while your colleague is trying to extract a sound boom that another beach resident has rolled on down at the ocean.

        It's not always picnic at the Pacific shore. Researching the colony also includes counting the pups that don't survive.

       Still, the beach beats any office I've known.

        And who's going to complain about you catching a nap?

        When compared to those winter's past, it's hard to think of even a foggy and cool day as being a bad day at the beach. That idea is shared out here.

 

         February can be brutal out there. On the central cost, it brings green and the hint of the spring's renewal that comes to all. 

    

        Back when my patience with winter chill and hazard was at its end, I'd start playing Paul Simon's April Come She Will.

     It will and for those of you in freezing temperatures, rain and snow, hope the adage "life's a beach!" warms you a bit. 

    See you down the trail.

The Demise

         There's a chop out there. Tough days in the newsroom, especially at CNN. Testing time on the diplomatic front. And I'm going to violate one of my mother's rules of conduct.

        Mom would often say, "if you can't say something nice about someone, don't say anything at all." But I can't ignore Jeff Zucker or Vladimir Putin. 

        From my view, they've been exposed, seen through and both have been up to no good. 

        They're dark agents and we deal with their legacy.

        I don't know Zucker though our paths crossed many times as we treaded the news and journalism events over the years.

        Zucker got respect for his early work at NBC bringing the Today Show to a new era. I worked 15 years at an NBC affiliate, was in and out of New York at NBC events or with the NBC crews in the field and we shared moments of history. 

        I followed his career track but when he got to CNN my opinion of his professional decisions tanked. Zucker turned CNN from a 24/7 News Network into a news and personality heavy yack format.

        Viewer interest in broadcast news rises and falls based on any number of variables, but substituting personality for reporting or investigative work and documentaries changed the nature of the network. Zucker was more about ratings and the bottom line than the public's need to know.

        

        The darker cloud over his now tarnished reputation was his fawning and irresponsible devotion to Trump. 

        Under Zucker's command CNN  gave then long shot and unlikely candidate Trump millions of dollars of free airtime during the Republican Primary. CNN's deplorable judgement  put on a countdown clock ticking away until the next Trump appearance. Never had a candidate been singled out for the spot light and free air time. No candidate ever was so propped up. No candidate was ever as undeserving.

        Zucker tossed out balance in news policy and philosophy to pander and let an infantile and crude hustler trash the sober Republican party, and infect the American political system with a rotting disease from which we still suffer. Zucker alone among all credible news group executives aided and abetted.

        I care less about Zucker's personal life. There are questions about his professional judgment and CNN is in a crisis. His damaging influence on news broadcasting is a greater offense. It is, however, another example of how self indulgent some in the information business are and how out of touch they are from the working and struggling audience and citizens.

       

        One has to wonder if Putin's campaign of interference, undermining and collusion would have happened without the  media shine on the narcissist stooge.

        In a December 9, 2013 post I referred to Putin as being a taker. The world watches as his motive and intent have been revealed and counter played by the US and allies. Thus far President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, Security Advisor Sullivan, NATO, and European leaders Macron and Scholz have been more than a match for the little Russian. But Putin is old school KGB, steely and immune to public opinion. 

        The table of options of response to an invasion are wide.

Putin is counting on a moronic partisan strife in Washington. We once enjoyed the adage that politics stops at the water's edge. That was before Jeff Zucker and Donald Trump.

        Stay safe and stay tuned. 

        See you down the trail.

        

          

Free flow....

 

        Night dresses these coastal mountains in ethereal velvet and pearls. Down on the other side of the canyon and through a forest the Pacific throats a lullaby surf. The mind wanders.

        Someplace between the Lunar New Year, listening to Thich Nhat Hahn, and watching a rocket launch I was able to aggregate those streams of consciousness. It is a trail of amusement. 

        

        I can watch a Space X Falcon rocket take a National  Reconnaissance Office payload into the heavens,

in an age when people are again banning books.

        Those hard to see little puffy spots in the frame above are the payload and second stage heading up while the puff to the left is the first stage returning to Vandenberg and its landing pad. You can find much better video and photos from Space X and NASA, but I'm boggled that I can see it from my deck.

      Rockets going into and coming home from space while a quarter of the US population refuses to trust science.

        Seeing dancing trees makes more sense than all the voter suppression laws, enacted in the name of a fraud that did not exist, solutions in search of a phantom problem. Double down on the P's.

    

        Poor Whoopi! Just goes to show how unstudied in history we have become. She didn't mean to be a monster, but even when you care you need facts, and truth. A lack of knowledge and intellectuality infects most public discourse today.

        If we didn't laugh, we'd cry.

        Thinking about the wise advise of Thich Nhat Hahn as I showered today, looking out the window to see the above frame.

        "Happiness is not something you find at the end of the road. You have to understand that it is here now."

        Friend Jim sent the above frame from native Indiana where he is visiting, longing to be back in California. That's easy to understand. 

    

        The blooming season has begun here. Lana is still picking tomatoes and snap peas, from last year. The lemon tree is bearing well and the lime is coming on. Happier thoughts even than hearing Mike Pence has discovered his cojones. 

        So as we toddle between absurdity and amusement, I'm shopping for glasses so I can see it all.

Especially those cosmic pearls.

    Meanwhile down here, "Walk as if you are kissing the earth with your feet."  

    It, and all of us on it, need a lot of love.

    See you down the trail.