POLLS, POLS and P.U.

THE TYRANNY OF THE NUMBERS

     Faster is not always better. At least that's true in a couple of human endeavors. A delightful colleague from Chicago was giving me dining trips for a weekend Lana and I were headed for in the Windy City. Delmarie had a couple of suggestions and then added, "I like to dine the way I like to make love, slowly."

       It appears some of us like our vote counting that way too. My old media colleague, Bruce Taylor, aka Catalyst in the Blogosphere, posted a great piece on his anger about how quickly the networks predicted the winner in New Hampshire. More than taking the fun out of watching, it bespeaks other difficulties.
       Full disclosure: As a field reporter, anchorman, senior analyst and the executive of news operations I valued almost as much as accuracy being first with reaction and predicting an outcome on election night. 
       Election night in a news division is an adrenaline pumping adventure that one must live through to fully understand and to savor. The first priority is always the consumer, but as Taylor and others argue that may have changed.
        Consider this. The average sound bite in the 1968 Presidential campaign was 40 some seconds. 20 years later it became the sentence of the day. i.e. "Read my lips. No new taxes." Now we mine social media in ''bits."  Maybe the majority of people want to know only who won, so, it follows, reading the projection is all they need. But like a fine meal or love making we may be missing a lot if we are not intentional, paying attention and deliberate. Nuance requires the time of finesse.
        Early on we'd hire political operatives who would set key or test precincts where previous patterns and outcome were measured. Once we had results from our key precincts we had data to analyse and if we chose to do so we could "predict" the outcome. Our political coverage director, Kevin Finch, now a Washington and Lee professor knew his stuff and brought in the best of the "the back room" experts.  
         Eventually numbers crunching extended to exit polling and then came algorithmic analysis. Now we live in the Nate Silver era when we "know" with some certainty who is going to win, even before the polls open. That is as fast as it can get, but is it helpful?
         It's my theory that since Theodore White wrote the Making Of the President political journalism has taken a path that obsesses on "inside baseball", the drama of campaigns and the constant addiction to the latest numbers. Of course the knowledge and technology is helpful and not unimportant, but it should not be the primary focus. There are two reasons that cause it to be that way.
         Campaign organizations are now part of the commercial business of elections-staff, technology, communication, media, advertising, polling, wardrobe, logistics and more. Back in 1991 Alan Ehrenhalt provided a prescient insight into all of this in his The United States of Ambition. Politics is a profession. That leads to the inevitable Government is a business, but that's a bone for another day. Politicians, their staff and activities are a commercial venture selling one product and always raising money.
         Reason # 2-Too many of the campaign press corp seem more impressed with their own ideas than with the candidates. With the hours of time to fill the news organizations default to yacking analysts and poll data in minutia. Many of those who are opining are relatively inexperienced.  One night Al Hunt was on with a couple of young experts who began talking about Reagan's campaign. Hunt, a newspaper veteran including  Washington bureau chief at the Wall Street Journal, shot in-'were you born then?" They had not and of course Hunt remembered Reagan, even as a pitchman for 20 Mule Team Borax. The point is way too many of the yacking heads have little qualifying experience other than  ambition. Old media relied on experience.
       The variety of debate formats this years is probably more about television ratings than true and earnest debate. The coverage is superficial on substance but Superbowl deep on numbers and who is going to win.
       Back to Taylor's suggestion that exit polling be forbidden.
No one should tell a network what they can or can't do. Probably impossible to ban exit polls despite how many people think like Taylor, so more than likely they are here. However network news executives could delay their use. They are not likely too because in their fevered world getting a prediction on the air before the competition probably charges up and may even satisfy their libidos. But they should practice "safe numbers."  
        If there are millions who may watch to see who wins, telling people at the top of the program, even those still waiting in line to vote, who won isn't smart. It's even foolish programming. It's like an invitation to turn off the coverage and go back to Tweeting. It's like starting the Superbowl with an announcement of who wins. OK, that's impossible isn't it? Well wait until humans carry communication chips or until our DNA has been edited. In that age even exit polls will seem like good old fashioned stuff. In the meantime we should take time to ponder the wisdom of taking it a little slower. 

SCENERY

    See you down the trail.

        

TRADITIONS AND LEGACIES

OLD SCHOOL WINS

     Old school sportswriters, before modern media, often wrote with the wisdom of sages and the language of poets. Modern America has a couple of contemporary tableau that are living personifications of traditional vs brash modern.

      The presidential sweepstakes offers contrast. The Democratic debates have been deep on substance, policy and agendas. Despite what a voter may think of the Clinton or Sanders philosophy, as a viewer you are treated to thoughtful articulation. The Republican debates have been "slice and dice" sessions with candidates attacking each other, often on less than substantial matters. Bombast and bravado have been the headlines, maybe inevitable when three of the leading candidates are Trump, Carson and Cruz, outsiders at best. Trump and Carson have no political experience and Cruz is detested by his own colleagues in the Senate and in the GOP. To this blogger's point of view, Ohio's Kasich has taken the traditional route and also the high ground. Florida's Bush has tried to play it that way, with questionable affect. In demeanor only, those two Governors have shown the class and capacity to be a President. They have shown intelligence.

       Maybe the biggest window came in the biggest American party-the secular spectacular. As the nation nurses Super Bowl hangover, the 50th edition wrote a legacy headline-Peyton Manning, supported by the earnest hard work of a smashing defensive unit rides off into the sun set in one of American sport's greatest fairy tale endings. Probably the hardest working/studying if not the most intelligent quarterback ever ends an all time record setting career with the biggest victory in the sport. Experts are quick to list Manning as one of the best 5 players ever. For those of us who know, support or cheer Manning, this is a glory moment.

        An Indianapolis sportswriter opined last week how the home of the Colts, where Manning led the team to a Superbowl, was for Super Sunday, a suburb of Denver. People love Manning, almost everywhere, and there is good reason.

       His brilliance at reading defense, and his physical skills will indeed be legend in the game. But there is more about Peyton and the run up coverage about him and his challenger quarterback Cam Newton is a classic example.            Newton is an extraordinary athlete. He is handsome, powerful, charismatic and in his own words representative of the new kind of super athlete who is taking over the game. Like many in modern America, Newton struggles with proper grammar, but he is still an articulate young man and personifies the kind of brashness and pride that is so rampant today. He is a football version of Donald Trump, though with more measurable skills. Peyton is old school.

       Manning is and has always been, humble and quick to give praise to his teammates, coaches and others. He told the pregame show he simply wanted to be remembered as a guy who was liked by his teammates and remembered for being a good team player. No doubt, ever.  He's the oldest Quarterback to play in the Superbowl, so he is old school, but there is something enduring about humility in a game of millionaires, swagger and bling.  Something rewarding too about a team that can win by defense--the hard, hard, agonizing work of grinding away. It is telling that Manning, who earlier in his career could run and could sail passes with the precision of a laser, but as a hurt, hobbled and aching old veteran could lead an offense and willingly cede the gridiron stage to the defense to let them control the pace of a game.

     Modern America likes flash and sizzle and selfies, the sort of thrill that an offensive game provides. Peyton used to be that way, as Cam Newton is now. But traditional ways require sacrifice, hard work and doing what it takes, even in the age of selfies and touchdown dances.  Selflessness wins over selfies.

       Had Peyton and the Broncos lost, you know he would have faced the media, answered their inquires, no matter how much he hurt. Cam Newton says he is a great fan of the game, and I don't doubt that. But I hope he is also a student. His post game behavior and his pre game "superman" swagger show that as good as he is, as promising as his future there are some old school lessons he should learn.

        Peyton Manning did it by hard work, very hard work, discipline and intelligence. Defensive hard work pays dividends. America should be paying attention.

        See you down the trail.

LATITUDES AND ATTITUDES

SEEING THINGS

       This west coast lays in the eastern US and the sun's descent drops not towards Hawaii and Japan, but toward the US mid-west.
        After being acclimated to the far western edge of the US, things seems different here. Silly of me I suppose, but I considered drive ways and garage doors as being for the use of cars.  Not sure how this Naples Florida arrangement works. Carefully I presume.

       I've been spoiled by village life in our enclave on the true west coast. We too have our share of senior drivers-of which I am one-and we drive in varying degrees of caution, or erratic dashes, but there is a variance here-volume and a healthy, or unhealthy as it may be, mixture of younger and/or aggressive drivers. Aggressive drivers in volume, working their way through the slower and perhaps erratic others makes for an adventure I'm content to do sparingly. Our dear daughter sounds like a parent, as her parents are about to venture out to play in traffic.  
    "This is season. We have heavily medicated drivers who are just back in town and it's crazy.  No, I mean it is really crazy."  
     Our daughter is wise, bless her heart. This is like LA at half the lanes, at 40 miles and hour but with that hybrid brew of medicated seniors, just back in town for season and the already ticked off locals who probably harbor mad max fantasies of rolling right over them.
      So back to daughters quiet enclave, to enjoy a quiet walk and to privately cherish the ability to shower without turning off the water between soaping and soaking. We can even let the water run until it gets hot. And brushing teeth with water running and not feeling guilty.  Changes in attitudes.

      Even if the sun doesn't set on water!

       See you down the trail.

DAZED AND WONDERING

THINGS CHANGE

     Here's a scene in which we have all played a role. The baggage wait.

      Where to stand, where to look, check the phone, eye the others wondering if some nefarious sort might get to your bag before you. It's all made more dramatic by a long flight, sleep deprivation, wondering if the rental car will be ready, where's the shuttle to the lot and why haven't the bags arrived yet ?           Why don't they test or train Public Address announcers before turning them loose? Little things-speak clearly, don't eat the microphone-speak slowly, especially if English is not your first language and don't sound so bored. Also, it might be nice to cue them into those gag names, still in play. And by the way, why haven't those bags arrived yet?

OTHER MYSTERIES

     We've come a distance to celebrate our eldest daughter's first child and to get acquainted with that delicate and sweet little bundle of joy who warms our hearts into membership in the grands club.

       Such innocence and purity. I can watch her endlessly as she stretches arms and legs, opening tiny little fingers, pursing dainty lips, hoping mom is somewhere in range. Little moves in a big world.  She is still gaining vision so her eyes labor to focus and to begin to make sense of this strange new surrounding. What extraordinary mystery this must be. I whisper to her that it's like the big wake up, or so I assume and tell her that it will all eventually make sense. Unspoken and in the back of my mind is the time when she reaches an age and looks at this big world and her human co-inhabitants and wonder why human ways sometimes don't make sense.

       But all of that is a sea of time and wonder away. Now each second is a time of learning, discovery and an opportunity to experience love and caring. She is lucky, she has a loving mommy, aunt and a couple of grand parents. She has a comfortable home in a safe neighborhood in a land that is at peace. Clean water and air, schools and doctors are available to her. So many children are not so fortunate. 

     And so this sweet child will awaken to her blessings, day by day and her granddad will ponder the wondrous mysteries of such a life and the stretching of time.  Our daughters expanded my sense time a few years ago. My granddaughter just hit the warp drive into hyper time.

      See you down the trail.

     

IS THIS TRUMP A TRICK

REMIND YOU OF SOMEONE?

The Donald

Nature's perverse humor

      I keep searching the side of the political coverage scenes, looking for a flash of Joel or Ethan Coen or George Clooney. Seeing them smirking around the edges of the political swamp would bring relief, this is all a joke.

    Warning bells are ringing. No less a traditionalist than conservative and Republican David Brooks laments and pleads for sanity arguing that neither Trump nor Cruz can be elected, he hopes.  Ditto for Sanders. They are not stable he argues so America will not take them on as long term companions. But the venerable Mr. Brooks is not convinced so he says he will spend the next few months in denial. He's not alone in the GOP, the Gagging Old Party.

    It's now an old joke-TV News has become all Trump all the time. There's far too much truth in that. It's the funny pages moved to the front page. The freak show moved to the big top. Donald is so colorful the modern journos can't help themselves.

    Ah, but they can.

Rachel pounds Flint 

    As so much of the media universe was making silly over the entirely over rated politically active Iowans and Donald Vs. Megyn, or basking in the annual Super Hype, Rachel Maddow did something different-real journalism. Like her or not, approve or disapprove of her tilt, she had the presence of mind and conscience to focus a big media light on an  unbelievable American disaster. 

    The story of lead contamination of 100 thousand Americans, including 9,000 children is symbolic of how broken, morally bankrupt and politically corrupt this nation can be. The story of Flint is something you'd expect in Russia or North Korea.

    Her town hall meeting was a tangible and credible effort at understanding yes, but also a beginning pursuit of doing something about it. Honestly, Flint is a helluva lot more important than the Iowa Caucus, New Hampshire Primary and the clown car media carnival they have fostered. And more honesty-crumbling infrastructure is not the exclusive problem of Flint.  How wide spread might it be? If you really want to know, pull up a map and begin counting every major city in America. When you've counted them all you'll have your answer.

KERMIT WAS RIGHT

   The modicum of good news in this post is the picture above. Moisture and green, in California. It hasn't been easy.

    We are sorry El Nino has produced serious problems elsewhere, but here on the California coast and into the high Sierra we are getting relief from four years of drought. Nothing is back to normal yet, but it is getting better. Lakes are no longer bone dry and the mountain snow pack is healthy. We have several more weeks in this rainy season and we are grateful for the additional moisture on the way.

       By the time the political circus comes to town out here our lovely green may have begun to fade into our golden season. The June primary here will be the end of the preliminaries and the eve of the national conventions. In the last few years the conventions have been nothing more than television programs, a sort of perverted telethon. There has been nothing to decide, so the delegates gather to party and offer up platitudes. This year could be a bit different.  We'll see. And how I hope I see the Coen's.

     See you down the trail.

NEAR AND FAR

STARTS

SHARING HARMONY IN CAMBRIA

     Regular readers may recall Chef Giovanni of Harmony Cafe and his ability to delight all. Giovanni has moved from Harmony California, population 18, to Main Street, Cambria. He brought along the culinary magic.

        These, from his current monthly lunch menu, are examples.

    At the top the polenta and wild boar ragout with lentils. Just above is the sausage burger and cannellini beans.

  As you may discern after study of this recent lunch menu, making decisions here are a challenge. He tells me he stays up late thinking of new offerings. 

 Chef Giovanni has moved into Cambria's famed Pewter Plough Playhouse, decorated with caricatures by the New Yorker's late Al Hirschfeld. 

   True to Cambria's bohemian and art colony nature, the unique wooden tables are the creations of craftsman David Plumb who is a singer and minstrel extraordinaire'.  

  We share this with trepidation. Locals enjoy the masterful and inventive culinary skills and time to chat with Giovanni, a delightful character. When foodies discovered his location in rustic Harmony we found ourselves sharing it with those who came from LA, San Francisco and further afield. But great is great, so if you get to California's central coast, Cafe Harmony at the Pewter Plough is guaranteed to be an authentic joy.

    In a future post we'll tease you a bit with some of his homemade dessert and coffee creations and his garden patio.

HARD STORIES FROM A DISTANCE

   After seeing Beasts of No Nation I told friends that all of us, everyone, regardless of politics or belief, should be held accountable for something that has been reported but largely ignored, the weaponizing of children. 
     It happens in many places, but director Cary Fukanaga tells the story of an African orphan turned into a solider by a charismatic commander played masterfully by Idris Elba. Elba's performance is cited as being ignored by the Academy Awards nomination process. It's a shame there's no category for first time roles. Abraham Attah, the young Ghana native  who plays the orphan is extraordinary. His final monologue, as he relates to a therapist what he had endured changing from a gentle boy who prayed regularly and loved his family to a hardened killer is both a chilling and haunting performance. Tragic reality undergirds this difficult but important film.

     Straight Outta Compton, posted previously, achieves something important as well that I failed to note. It provides a sense of the life that explains better than any politician, professor or activist why young blacks can grow up with an attitude about police and the larger society. Though some will bristle, as they did at the time, NWA was justified to have the anger and frustration they spoke so boldly.

     Revenant is an epic. Its scale as story, production and ultimately as a film is huge and overwhelming. I understand why DiCaprio has been nominated. His work is phenomenal. However, in my estimation at least, Eddie Redmayne's performance in The Danish Girl is even better. Redmayne shows more diversity, range and complex emotion than did Di Caprio, as good as he was as a frontier scout fighting for survival. 
      In the last analysis the Oscars come down to something more than mere performance. Politics, culture and money are involved and DiCaprio's film is larger in all ways. That could make a difference. So too the fact Redmayne won last year for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking.  

     

      After all, the Oscars are not about curing disease, winning wars, ending oppression, bringing justice or anything earth shattering.  They are professional awards given by an industry where the bottom line is just that-commerce.

     See you down the trail.

IS OSCAR COLOR BLIND OR BLIND?

AVOIDING BEING WASHED UP

    Something is amiss in Hollywood and friction over the Oscar nominations is the smoke signal.

     The make-believe world of the film industry cannot use special effects to escape a few painful realities. Debate over to or not to boycott this years Academy Award presentation is  one plot turn. Another is will the Academy do something about its award deciding process?

      The Academy is made up of Branches, relating to the various skills and crafts of film making; directing, acting, cinematography, writing, design, editing, and etc. Membership comes only through a sponsor and though the Academy is private about who belongs, an LA Times investigation revealed statistics that show it is a predominately white male organization. Some say the representation of male and female membership is roughly equivalent to the percentage of people working in film, but there's no way to be sure. Even that however does not speak to a couple of other story lines.

       The film industry itself is a largely white enclave notably in the film studios and leadership, and mostly male as well. As George Clooney noted recently the current debate about the whiteness of this year's nominees goes mostly to the lack of African American talent but says little about Hispanic under representation that Clooney says is another problem.

       Close to the core of this friction is a legitimate debate-Many believe the Oscars should recognize achievement and not be about pushing for diversity. It is an award, not social engineering. That's touchy in this age of racial sensitivity and lingering racism. It's even touchier when one consider the majority of Academy voters are white and male. True, the Academy is the private club of an already self indulgent professional culture so in a theory, one can argue, they can run the club house however they wish. But this is the 21st Century and we know about colonialism, imperialism, feudalism, racism and bias. And after all who makes the industry important? Movie goers! The fans are the ultimate power here. 

         Though we are marketed to, hyped, pitched and hustled we decide fates and fortunes by deciding to watch or not. If we are more than white males, it would follow what we get should be about more than white males. And that is true, but the disconnects exists.

        Personally, I can't understand why Will Smith did not get a nomination for his courageous role in Concussion-based on  a real character who too was brave and historic. As I watched Straight Outta Compton I wondered why Oshea Jackson, Jason Mitchell or Corey Hawkins were not considered for supporting actor roles. I have yet to see Beasts of No Nation, but people whom I respect say Idris Elba was excellent in his role.

         Nothing against those who have been nominated. I've seen most of the nominees and indeed there has been masterful work. But I have to wonder if there were more women, more men and women of color in the process of selecting and eventually electing the winners, would we see more diversity.  I think so.

        The end of this drama is to be written. Will we see a large scale boycott? Will Chris Rock emcee or boycott? If he works, how will he handle the issue? Will a presenter or a recipient do a Marlon Brando?  Will viewers shun the telecast?  Will commercial sponsors show guts?  Could an ad agency advise a big sponsors to tailor a special message respecting the quality of the nominees but lamenting the lack of diversity? Perhaps the biggest mystery is what will the Academy do about fixing what is clearly a problem in a system that bears a lot of resemblance to a plantation?

A MOMENT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE 

    We pause here under our blooming Jade, a sign of good luck, prosperity and friendship to congratulate our eldest on the birth of her daughter, our first grandchild. Congratulations also to our other daughter, an RN who was part of the delivery process. Everyone is doing well, including grandmother who can't stop smiling. Grandad got the news on the tennis court and had to wipe away a few tears before he got back to playing. 

     God bless that little darling and all of her generation. It gives this boomer more incentive to care about justice, fairness, peace and planetary health.

      See you down the trail.