WHITHER AMERICA?

a painted November sky in Morro Bay

whither America?

     At this moment let's leave red and blue out of the picture and think about something that is in the best interests of everyone. There is a visitor to this nation that threatens us with a brain and heart killing disease, despite what is our politics, personal belief, color, ethnicity, identity or dream. What threatens us all is the lack of reasoning.

    Emotion has become our operating system and it is to our detriment. The evidence is everywhere; in the way people "talk" to each other either in social media or face to face,  political advertising plays to emotion, our tone is inflammatory and emotional, objectivity and analysis is drowned out by volume and emotion. And of course we are divided by just about everything and we are very poor at being civil in our disagreements. 

    The history of the US is the history of disagreement and competing forces, ideas, beliefs and philosophy but we've always held together at the center, found compromise and accord with that one tragic exception.

a house divided

       For the next 726 days of your life and mine we find ourselves caged in the reality of the 2020 Presidential election. Count them off if you wish, but it will be an enormous challenge to tune them out. For our well being, for our survival, we need to change the tone and begin thinking.

     Objectivity and analysis need to override emotion but that too will be a challenge.

hacking the human heart and mind

       Ponder this briefly-James Bridle is a British writer/artist/thinker who wrote THE NEW DARK AGE-Technology And The End Of The Future. I heard him interviewed recently where he makes the case the digital and networked world is increasingly influencing human behavior and especially in advertising and media. Algorithms impact almost every aspect of our social interaction and consumer behavior now. Bridle asks what happens when technology knows your likes and dislikes to such a degree that it can purposely hack your emotions-to the extent it can affect your pulse rate, your sense of well being, by controlling the information you see and hear.

      His concern is that an artificial intelligence, an algorithm will "reason" the best way to get you to do or like something is to manipulate you, relentlessly.

     We humans are and have been doing that to and with each other, maybe forever. But now we've become so emotional, so overloaded by loud and divisive voices, with so few places for retreat and sanctuary that we are a bundle of frayed nerves and trigger fingers and tongues. Add the sophistication of AI and we've just upped the chances of disaster. And that is made even more sinister when adversaries, like enemy powers or rogue agents try to intrude  like perhaps in our election cycles.

our hearts at the mid term

     A few tea leaves to read here-if a state is 2/3 white, Democrats lose, Republicans win. Educated women vote Democrat. White women without a college degree vote Republican. 

     Florida restores the right to vote to 1.4 million felons, most of whom are black. This in a state where the governors race was decided by some 74 thousand votes.

     In voting for House and Senate seats Democrats pulled 13 million votes more than Republicans.

     Suburbs and urban areas are consistently Democrat. Rural areas are consistently Republican. Educated professionals vote Democrat. What was once considered "blue collar" seem to be voting Trump Republican. The less education one has the more likely they are to vote Republican. That is almost a direct reversal of the way it was just a few years ago.

     There are of course other divides and the analysis will continue. Some things are certain-the government is divided.

     The House is under control of Democrats who will now have subpoena power. There are public matters they will push and that could include seeing this President's tax returns, exploring his families business ties and entanglement with the business of government, the Russian meddling inquiry, Jared Kushner's business interests, what and how did the White House limit the investigation into sexual assault allegations against Judge and now Justice Kavanaugh, the sexual assault allegations against the President.

      The Mueller investigation also hangs over both the White House and the US Capitol.

      How will we behave for the next 726 days? The President's news conference Wednesday morning didn't bode well. Do citizens still expect something called "Presidential behavior?" Do we still believe that a man or woman should "rise" to the office? Do we think that a free press asking hard questions still has a place in a free society? Do we still believe that all people regardless of color, ethnicity, gender and identity should be free? Do we still believe the confederacy was wrong? Do we still believe the Nazi ideology is outside the bounds of accepted human behavior? Do we still believe the conviction of Nazi war criminals outlawed that belief for all time? Do we still believe the KKK and other white supremacists have no place in a civil society? Do we believe that pandering to the basest among us is wrong?  Do we believe that a politics of ridicule, division and hate is wrong? Do we believe we should govern toward the center? Do we believe we should listen to each other? Do we believe we can find a middle ground and compromise? What do we believe is American?

       See you down the trail.

     

Which Turn on the U.S. Political Road?

an old and less traveled road

between Templeton and Cambria

recovery or precipice

     Wise analysts remind us we should never say never in politics. What is true today can change in a flash, or a tweet.

      During decades of reporting, I considered politics the greatest American spectator sport. It is not so great anymore, but we are all governed by the tawdry game. The great parties are in tatters, unsure of their future. Citizens demand a better system. The nation is divided, depressed, angry and must make hard choices. 

      Politics has become a profession, attended to by an industry of consultants and specialists; opposition researchers, analysts, pollsters, communication directors, fund raisers, etc. and it all comes down to money. Consequently the government we have given ourselves has been commercialized. Follow the money. It is all about money. H.L. Mencken was right "In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advanced auction of stolen goods."  The complete quote will follow below in this post.

      Regardless, we must live with and endure the consequence of the government and those we elect to govern and those who feed, fuel and whisper in their ears.

into the woods we go

     Despite the invocation of the seasonal cliche' this election is the most important ever, the November mid-terms will have significant impact on where we head. It is the starter's gun for the 2020 Presidential election and the life altering fall out that follows. The mid-terms also have a more immediate importance to this presidency, the investigations, and the discord in America.

the big circus

     What does it mean to be a Republican? What does it mean to be a Democrat? I've posted previously on the irrelevance of such, though those who self identify, and those of us who live under their rule will pay attention as both parties try to find either their soul and/or a standard bearer. Who will be their Presidential candidate?

     Before we look at the possible choices and scenarios-

the democrats right turn

and its consequence

    Here are some unknowables, but worthy of pondering. What if Al Gore or Gary Hart had won the Democrat nomination in 1988 instead of Michael Dukakis? More importantly, what if Jerry Brown or Paul Tsongas would have won the 1992 nomination instead of Bill Clinton? 

    Gore and Hart had Washington experience and were wiser in the wonky ways of budgets, defense programs, technology and yes social entitlements. But, the big chip is the 92 nomination of Slick Willie over more liberal candidates of Brown and Tsongas.

     Clinton and his DLC, Democratic Leadership Council, were all about moving the Democrats toward the right and steering away from the leftward lean of the 60's, 70's and 80's. 

    John Kerry might have been able to move the party back to the left. The death of Ted Kennedy also created a lack of a leftward steering wind in the party. But Clinton's tenure and later Hillary's influence pushed the Democrat party right and into the laps of big money, big business and resulted in NAFTA, repeal of Glass-Steagall, and tried to rewrite Democrat ethos. 

    It also allowed Republicans to abandon their once centrist views and to pander to the right wing, one issue zealots and their kook fringe. As we know they fed that cousin they kept under the basement stairs until it got strong enough to eat and dismember the traditional Republican party. Remember the slew of old line Republicans who retired or who got caught up being "primaried" by the Tea Party/Liberty Caucus?

     People who consider Barack Obama a liberal are caught in this kind of psychological optical illusion. It was created by the Democrats move to the right and the Republican move to the extreme right, populated by self-centered philosophy, that in turns makes Obama look liberal by comparison. That or people simply don't know what they are talking about, and are disconnected from history and knowledge. Bernie Sanders may be liberal, Barack Obama was not. Clinton was a major enabler of big money influence in and on government. Clinton took the Democrat party to bed with forces liberal Democrats and old Democrats warred with.

     Since Clinton the U.S. "center" has moved right and we even have populations that cheer and celebrate bully authoritarianism. 

the hard scrabble trail ahead

     Both parties now face a challenge and who they select, and how they do it will have influence on the nation as well as the parties, long beyond the 2020 Presidential race.

the democrats

      The Democrats are at odds, more so than usual. Modern Democrats have frequently resembled a knife fight or rumble but now they have deeper issues. It is my take they must also resolve generational leadership issues as well as determine what they believe. Is lashing together coalitions to take precedence over advocating social agendas, defense policies and etc? 

       Soon we will begin to see the Democrat talent show as we watch a leader emerge. Who will the Democrats turn to? At this writing the list of potential contenders is long.

--Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu

--Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

--New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

--Conn. Senator Chris Murphy

--Former NY Mayor Bloomberg

--Former Atty. General Eric Holder

--Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe

--Former Mass. Governor Deval Patrick

--New York Senator Kirsten Gillenbrand

--New Jersey Senator Cory Booker

--California Senator Kamala Harris

--Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren

--Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

--Former Vice President Joe Biden

And there are others who have been getting attention.

--Montana Governor Steve Bullock

--Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro

--Col Governor John Hickenlooper

--LA Mayor Eric Garcetti

--Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

--Washington Governor Jay Inslee

--Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz

   The debates, forums, town halls and speeches will provide a context for the nation to watch a tone, policy and approach begin to emerge. That will help to shape and form what this new iteration of the party may become. 

   I suspect one of the toughest matters for Democrats is how to absorb, accommodate or perhaps dismiss the kind of insurgency we see in candidates who identify with Democratic Socialism, non traditional or radical approaches.

   I anticipate more of that in the years ahead. By nature of this force, Democrats may steer again toward liberal thinking. 

the republicans

     The Republican party is in tatters. The speaker of the House resigns from government because he cannot discipline the party and especially the disruptive liberty caucus. The Senate is playing footsie with the occupant of the White House as crazy and malicious as he is. They are in the sway of a Shakespearian tragedy. They have sacrificed their decades of value on foreign policy to lay down with a Russian stooge.

      Think how the world would be so much different and the enmity in the US so much less if John Kasich, or Marco Rubio or even Ted Cruz had won the nomination. Speculate even if one of them had defeated their reviled Lady Hillary.

A much different reality emerges.

       The nation watches to see if the vestige of traditional Republican values will find a standard bearer to rise up and fight what even his staff refers to as the vile and mad idiot.

       Republicans could begin the road to redemption if someone challenges Trump. Possibilities?

--Ohio Governor and former Congressman Kasich

--Arizona Senator Jeff Flake

--Texas Senator Ted Cruz 

--Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse

    Our culture has a tendency to mythologize. People often look a little better when time works as a lapidary. Politics has always been rough, but we seem stuck in a phase where a sense of vision is lacking, where principle is discarded for expediency and where money rules. Perhaps these internal fights in the two major parties will lead to something better.

We can hope.

     "The state-or, to make matters more concrete, the government-consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to seek out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get, and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time it is made good by looting 'A' to satisfy 'B'. In other words, government is a broker in pillage and every election is a sort of advanced auction on stolen goods." H.L. Mencken

   See you down the trail.